New York Giants at Houston Texans
Sunday, October 25, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX
The Houston Texans are 10-point favorites over the New York Giants, and the total is 43. My play is Giants +10 (-108 at DraftKings).
The Giants don’t get blown out. They’ve lost by more than a touchdown exactly once all season, and now the market wants a Houston team that hasn’t won at home to beat them by double digits. The Texans are 0-3 at Reliant Stadium, with losses to Buffalo, Cincinnati and Dallas, and they haven’t covered in any of them. This number opened at Texans -7 and has climbed three points since.
Credit where it’s due, Houston is rolling. Since DeMeco Ryans took back the defensive play-calling, the Texans have won 26-3 at Tennessee and 34-31 over Jacksonville in London on a Ka’imi Fairbairn field goal at the gun. C.J. Stroud is second in the NFL in passing yards and almost never gives the ball away. Houston also traded for Marvin Harrison Jr., and Ryans says Tank Dell will play for the first time since December 2024: “I’m just going to be excited to see him just out there for the first time in over two years.” That’s a good story. Ten points is a lot to pay for it.
New York plays everybody close. The Giants are 3-2-1 and 4-2 against the spread. Outside of a 28-6 dud against the Rams, their other loss came by seven to the Saints, and even that mess, with four turnovers and 34 straight points allowed, ended with the Giants throwing into the end zone on fourth-and-1 for a chance to tie.
The quarterback drama might actually help. John Harbaugh hasn’t decided between Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy. “We’re working through that now, honing in on a decision,” he said Monday. McCarthy came off the bench in a 24-point hole and threw for 243 yards in one quarter, while Winston is 2-1-1 as the starter. Whoever plays gets Malik Nabers, who has topped 100 receiving yards in three straight games. Houston’s pass defense ranks 21st by EPA, so Nabers should get his.
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Houston can’t bully anyone on the ground. To cover 10, you usually need to run the ball late and squeeze the life out of the game. Houston averages just 3.6 yards a carry, 29th in the league, and David Montgomery is questionable with a groin injury. That leaves Stroud throwing into a Giants defense that ranks fifth in yards allowed per pass.
Per snap, these teams just aren’t that far apart. Houston ranks 14th in net EPA per play, which is offense minus defense, and the Giants rank 22nd. That gap plus home field is worth about a touchdown, not 10.
Why I could be wrong. The Giants’ tackles worry me. Right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor is questionable with a calf injury, and left tackle Andrew Thomas left Sunday’s game to be checked for a concussion. Will Anderson Jr. has 7.5 sacks, and he and Danielle Hunter make up the scariest edge duo the Giants will see all year. New York has also turned it over 11 times, and Winston can throw a game away in a single quarter. If the Texans get a pick-six or two short fields, 10 points disappears fast.
The bottom line. Stroud makes enough plays to win, but the Texans’ run game can’t close the door, and Nabers keeps the Giants close all afternoon. My projection is Texans 24, Giants 17. I’d bet New York down to +9.5. At +9 it’s a lean, and I’m out at +8.5 or less. If you spot +10.5 at a fair price, grab the hook.
The Pick: Giants +10 (-108 at DraftKings)
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