Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 25, 2026
1:00 PM ET, U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
The Minnesota Vikings are 6.5-point favorites over the Indianapolis Colts, and the total is 41.5. My play is Vikings -6.5 (-108 at DraftKings).
One team spent its bye week getting healthy. The other spent Monday firing its general manager. Minnesota comes back rested and unbeaten, while Indianapolis blew a 13-0 halftime lead and lost 26-20 at home to a Titans team that came in 0-5, and got booed in its own building. DeForest Buckner, a six-time Colts captain, didn’t hide his frustration: “I’m sick and tired of the same song and dance every year.” Chris Ballard was out as GM the next day. Now the Colts fly to Minneapolis to face the best defense in football. Good luck.
Shane Steichen is sticking with Daniel Jones, and I understand the loyalty. I just don’t love the timing. Jones has nine turnovers, second-most in the league, and he’s completing a career-low 59.6% of his passes. “He’s aware that he has to produce and play better,” Steichen said. He’ll have to do it without Alec Pierce, who’s on injured reserve, and maybe without tight end Tyler Warren, his leading receiver, who’s questionable with a groin injury.
Minnesota’s defense is a problem nobody has solved
The Vikings are 5-0, and the defense is the reason. They allow 12.8 points a game, fewest in the NFL, and they lead the league in EPA allowed per play by a wide margin. Here’s a stat that sums them up: opponents have a successful play, one that keeps them on schedule, just 33% of the time. Nobody else is close.
It gets worse in the spots that matter. Opponents convert only 22% of third downs against Minnesota and score touchdowns on just a quarter of their red-zone trips. The Vikings also lead the league in sack rate. Put that against a quarterback who threw two red-zone interceptions last week, and Indianapolis is going to spend a lot of Sunday kicking, punting or giving the ball back.
The turnover math is brutal. The Colts are a league-worst minus-8 in turnover margin, with just three takeaways all season. Minnesota is plus-six.
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The Minnesota offense hasn’t been pretty. Kyler Murray missed most of the opener with a concussion, Justin Jefferson missed time with an ankle injury, and the Vikings rank 27th in EPA per play. But this is the right defense to get healthy against. Indianapolis has already given up seven passes of 40-plus yards and ranks 31st in pressure rate, which is a gift for a Vikings line that’s been leaky.
Murray finally found a rhythm before the bye, going 24 of 30 in New Orleans, and he sounded like a guy who knows help is coming: “I feel like offensively, we’re ascending and the defense, they’ve been doing their thing.” Jordan Mason is expected back from injured reserve, and Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and left tackle Christian Darrisaw could return too.
The part that keeps me honest
Minnesota’s offense has scored 9 and 15 points in two of its wins, and it failed to cover as a 10-point favorite against Miami. Indianapolis ranks fourth in third-down defense, and Jonathan Taylor already has seven rushing touchdowns, enough to steal a cover with a late score against a tired defense. With a total this low, a meaningless backdoor touchdown is the nightmare. I’m also counting on Darrisaw and Hockenson clearing concussion protocol, and that isn’t guaranteed.
I still trust the matchup. A rested defense that hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in a game this season is going to swallow a turnover machine, and the Colts arrive with a fired GM and a captain who’s fed up. I’ve got Vikings 24, Colts 13. Bet it at -6.5, and treat it as a lean if it hits 7. At -7.5, I’d pass.
The Pick: Vikings -6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
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