Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Sunday, October 25, 2026
4:25 PM ET, Ford Field, Detroit, MI
The Detroit Lions are 3-point favorites over the Green Bay Packers, and the total is 53.5. My play is Packers +3 (-102 at BetMGM).
Here’s a number that should make anyone laying points in this game nervous: 207-207. That’s the combined score of the last eight Packers-Lions games in Detroit, and every one of them was decided by a single possession. This rivalry doesn’t do blowouts at Ford Field. It does coin flips, and I’ll take the three points in a coin flip every day of the week.
Detroit is the trendy side, and I understand why. The Lions are coming off a bye, home teams off a bye are 53-34 since 2021, and safety Brian Branch is set to make his season debut after last year’s torn Achilles. The line has crept from 2.5 to 3. I just think the bye week is getting credit for fixing a defense that has been bad for five straight games.
Two weeks off doesn’t patch this many holes
The Lions’ defense ranks 30th in points allowed and dead last against the pass. By EPA per play, which measures how much each snap helps or hurts a team’s chances of scoring, Detroit sits 31st in the league on defense. Every Lions game has gone Over this year. They’re scoring 32.8 points a game and giving up 29.6.
Branch helps. Dan Campbell said, “Barring anything negatively happening between now and the game, we plan on playing both of those guys,” meaning Branch and center Cade Mays. But fellow safety Kerby Joseph is still out, corner Rock Ya-Sin is questionable, and one safety isn’t going to cure a secondary that gets beat this often.
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Jordan Love treats Ford Field like his backyard
Love has made three career starts in Detroit and has yet to throw an interception in any of them, with eight touchdown passes. The Packers have scored 28 or more in each of their last three trips here, and they swept the Lions last season, including a 31-24 win in this building on Thanksgiving.
Green Bay also brings the better defense. Jonathan Gannon’s group ranks seventh in EPA allowed and fourth against the pass, and it’s tied for the league lead with 11 takeaways. It just picked off Dak Prescott twice in a 23-13 win over Dallas on Sunday night, the Packers’ third straight win. Jared Goff hasn’t thrown an interception all year, which is impressive. It also means the Packers’ ball-hawks are due to force a mistake from a passer who has had a very clean six weeks.
The case against the Cheeseheads
The Packers can’t run the ball. Their rushing offense ranks dead last in EPA, and Josh Jacobs’ return is still to be determined. That puts a lot on Love behind an offensive line that has been Green Bay’s weak spot, against Aidan Hutchinson (four sacks) and DJ Wonnum (five). Micah Parsons is still out with his knee, so the Packers’ pass rush is lighter than it should be. And Jahmyr Gibbs is a cheat code. He’s scored in every game, and Gannon summed it up in four words: “He’s faster than everybody.” If Gibbs breaks two long runs, the three points won’t save me.
How Sunday ends
It’s a shootout. Goff and Gibbs get theirs, Love carves up a secondary that hasn’t stopped anybody, and it comes down to the last possession like it always does in this building. I have Lions 27, Packers 26. I’d still bet Green Bay at +2.5, and if a +3.5 shows up, grab it.
The Pick: Packers +3 (-102 at BetMGM)
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