Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, October 25, 2026
4:25 PM ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
The Los Angeles Rams are 4.5-point favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders at most books, and the total is 48.5. My play is Rams -4 (-110 at Caesars).
“We won’t win a game unless we figure out how not to beat ourselves.” That was Sean McVay opening his press conference after an 18-16 home loss to Arizona, a game his team entered as a double-digit favorite. The preseason Super Bowl favorites are 2-4 and sitting last in the NFC West. Everybody has seen the headlines. Good. Panic is when a price gets interesting.
The line moved more than the team got worse. This game opened with the Rams laying as much as 7.5, and it’s down to 4 or 4.5. Some of that is real. Davante Adams ruptured a hamstring, Kobie Turner and nose tackle Poona Ford are out, and Brandon McManus is about to become the Rams’ third kicker of the season after Blake Grupe tore his ACL. But a drop of more than a field goal is a lot for a team that still does the important stuff well. The Rams rank seventh in offensive success rate, which tracks how often a play keeps an offense on schedule. Their problem has been self-sabotage: turnovers, penalties and a special teams unit that keeps bleeding points. That stuff is ugly, but it’s fixable. A bad roster isn’t.
Help is coming back, too. Left tackle Alaric Jackson returns from suspension, and Trent McDuffie has been upgraded to questionable. Puka Nacua is still here, and he’s more than enough of a target to keep this offense moving between the 20s.
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Las Vegas has to throw to beat you, and everybody knows it. Klint Kubiak has done good work in Year 1. The Raiders score 27 points a game, and Kirk Cousins has 14 touchdown passes. But they’ve lost three straight, and the running game is broken. Ashton Jeanty has 313 yards on 98 carries, and the Raiders rank dead last in rushing success rate. Kubiak even said, “I think we have to get production from all three of our backs.” A one-dimensional offense against a Rams defense that holds opponents to a 32.9% third-down rate and didn’t allow a single Arizona touchdown last week is a fair fight at worst for L.A.
And the Raiders can’t keep anyone out. Vegas gives up 27 points a game, ranks 22nd in defensive EPA, and is 25th against the pass. Stafford doesn’t need Adams to find holes in that.
Where this bites me. The Raiders are 5-1 against the spread and 3-0 ATS at home, and they have covered all season by refusing to go away. Two of their three losses were by three points. If the Rams’ patched-up defensive front can’t get home, Cousins will pick it apart with Brock Bowers, and a third kicker in six weeks is the kind of thing that turns a 4-point cover into a push or a miss. McVay’s team has also earned the doubt. It hasn’t stopped beating itself yet.
How it plays out. The Rams play a clean game for once, Stafford punishes a soft secondary, and Las Vegas stalls whenever it has to run. Rams 27, Raiders 20. I’ll play it up to -4.5. At -5 it’s a lean, and I’m off at -5.5 or higher.
The Pick: Rams -4 (-110 at Caesars)
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