Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics
Monday, October 26, 2026
7:30 PM ET, TD Garden, Boston
The Celtics are 14.5-point favorites over the Bulls with a total of 233.5, and my play is Bulls +14.5 (-115).
“I want them to shoot the ball,” Tiago Splitter said after Chicago’s loss to Washington on Saturday. “They can shoot.”
Right now, they can’t. The Bulls are 28-of-124 from deep, which works out to 22.6%, dead last in the NBA. They also lost by 43 in Toronto on opening night. So, sure, laying 14.5 with Boston looks like the easy click. I’m going the other way, because this number is pricing in a cold streak that won’t last, against a Celtics team that hasn’t blown anybody out yet.
The shooting will come back. This isn’t a roster of non-shooters. Chicago ranked 17th in three-point percentage last season, right in the middle of the pack. Rookie Caleb Wilson is 1-of-9 from deep in his best game so far (30 points and 14 boards against the Wizards). Matas Buzelis went 2-of-7 that night. Guys who keep taking open threes eventually make them. I don’t need the Bulls to get hot, just closer to normal.
Boston plays slow, and slow is your friend at +14.5. The Celtics had the slowest pace in the league last season and rank 29th again this year. Fewer possessions means fewer chances for a talent gap to turn into a 20-point blowout. Boston’s two games so far were decided by eight and four. They led Detroit by 22 and lost. They beat the Knicks by four behind a big night from Jayson Tatum.
Chicago lives at the line. The Bulls have made 90 free throws in three games, and their free-throw rate ranks second in the league, per Basketball Reference. Boston’s ranks 29th. When you’re down double digits, free points stop the bleeding without needing a single three to drop.
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The new-look Celtics are still a work in progress
There’s plenty to like in Boston. Paul George, who came over in the Jaylen Brown trade, scored 38 in his Celtics debut. Tatum, in his first full season back from the Achilles tear, scored 36 against the Knicks. Jordan Walsh helped hold Jalen Brunson to 7-of-17 on Friday, and George said Walsh “set the tone.”
But this team hasn’t defended well. Boston ranks in the bottom third in defensive rating and is one of the league’s worst defensive rebounding teams early on. That’s a problem against a Bulls team that grabbed 21 offensive rebounds even during the Toronto disaster. Mitchell Robinson starts at center now with Neemias Queta coming off the bench, so the rotation is still finding itself, too.
Boston has also won nine of the last 11 meetings. Respect the history, but most of it came against a Celtics roster that looked very different.
Here’s how I lose
Chicago’s floor is ugly. In that 43-point loss in Toronto, the Bulls committed 27 turnovers and went 4-of-36 from three. Their defense is giving up 128 points a night, second-worst in the league. Nic Claxton is out with a hamstring strain, and both Noa Essengue and Patrick Williams are questionable, which thins out the frontcourt. Boston has also had two days to rest and prepare. If the Celtics get rolling from deep at TD Garden, this could be over by halftime.
I’ll take that chance at this price. The opener was Boston -13.5, and a few places are still dealing it. If that’s all you can find, +13.5 at a better price is still a bet. I wouldn’t play this below +12.5.
Projected score: Celtics 118, Bulls 109
The Pick: Bulls +14.5 (-115)
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