Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers
Monday, October 26, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Rocket Arena, Cleveland
The Cavaliers are 3.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves with a total of 232.5, and my play is Timberwolves +3.5 (-110).
The back-to-back is the only argument for Cleveland here, and I don’t think it’s a very good one.
Yes, Minnesota beat Toronto at home Sunday night and has to tip off in Cleveland barely a day later. That’s the Wolves’ first back-to-back of the season. But nobody really worked hard on Sunday. Minnesota led by as many as 32 and coasted home. Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels led the team at 31 minutes apiece, Anthony Edwards played under 30, and foul trouble kept LaMelo Ball to 17 minutes. Ball basically got a night off, whether he wanted one or not.
Three blowouts, and it wasn’t just Ant
The Wolves are 3-0 and have won by 25, 22 and 23. Through the first week they rank second in the league in net rating and first in defensive rating, per Basketball Reference. Small sample, sure, but a team doesn’t luck into a 20-point average margin.
What I like most is that they’ve won three different ways. In Miami, Edwards dropped 45 with nine threes. In Orlando he went 5-of-23, and Minnesota still won by 22 because it owned the offensive glass and turned those misses into 17 second-chance points, per the AP. On Sunday the shots fell and Toronto’s Scottie Barnes went 0-for-12.
“Our ball contain continues to be strong and our fly-around is really good,” Chris Finch said after the Raptors game. When your star goes 5-of-23 and you still win by 22, you have a real team.
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Cleveland keeps building big leads and giving them back
The Cavs have been fun for about three quarters a night. In the opener they led Philadelphia by 29 and lost by eight. On Saturday they led Brooklyn by 17 with four minutes left and needed free throws in the final seconds to win 125-121. Kenny Atkinson didn’t sugarcoat it: “Part of this is we’re not in elite condition right now, which is kind of normal. It’s the second game. Getting in a rhythm, we’re not there.”
The fourth-quarter fades come from turnovers. Cleveland gave it away 21 times in Philly and 23 more against Brooklyn. Its turnover rate is second-worst in the NBA. Now the Cavs face a defense that harasses ball handlers and then cleans up every miss. Minnesota grabs more than 36% of its own misses, second in the league. Cleveland is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league so far. If the Cavs don’t get extra shots and keep handing over empty possessions, their hot starts won’t matter.
The core three has been great. Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are combining for 63.5 points a night on 58.4% shooting, per Field Level Media. The new pieces haven’t helped yet. James Harden is 6-of-20 from the field, and offseason addition Peyton Watson is shooting 33.3%.
The market agrees with me. Cleveland opened as a 4.5-point favorite, and the consensus line has dropped to 3.5 even with the back-to-back built in.
The case against me
The tired-legs angle is real, and so is the free-throw line. Minnesota has made only about 61% of its free throws through three games (51-of-84). In a close game in a road gym, that can cost you a cover. Cleveland also plays at the fastest pace in the league so far, which is exactly how you make a team on no rest feel it in the fourth quarter. And the Cavs’ big three is good enough to just outscore anybody on a hot night. Minnesota’s injury report hadn’t been filed as of early Monday, so check it before tip. Donte DiVincenzo is already out with his Achilles injury. Cleveland is without Khalifa Diop and Nae’Qwan Tomlin.
I’d play this down to +2.5. Below that, I’d take a sprinkle on the moneyline.
Projected score: Timberwolves 116, Cavaliers 113
The Pick: Timberwolves +3.5 (-110)
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