Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Monday, October 26, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Ball Arena
The Nuggets are 7.5-point favorites over the Warriors with a total of 233.5, and my play is Warriors +7.5 (-105).
The last time Golden State had Curry, Draymond, Podziemski and Horford in uniform together, it was up 106-94 on Memphis with 3:47 to go. Then the Warriors missed their last nine shots, never made another field goal and lost by three. That’s the game that started the panic. The 0-3 record, Golden State’s first in 19 years, is real. The team the market is pricing tonight mostly isn’t.
The Phoenix loss was a JV game
Saturday in Phoenix was the Warriors’ third game in four nights, and Steve Kerr sat Stephen Curry (right knee), Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski and Al Horford (all lower back). Brandon Williams started at point guard. Two-way center Graham Ike started. And Golden State still hit 17 threes and trailed by just three at halftime before Devin Booker’s 43 points finished it off.
All four vets are back Monday. None of them is on the league’s early injury report for this game. That’s a different team than the one that just lost by nine.
Then there’s the rookie. Yaxel Lendeborg is averaging 18.7 points and 8.3 rebounds through three games, and his 26 points and six threes in Phoenix made him the first Warriors rookie with 26 points, nine rebounds and five assists in a game since Curry in 2010. Kerr is handing him more. “We can’t just rely on Steph Dray pick-and-roll, you know, night after night to close games,” he said. “We’re going to put Yaxel in more and more pick-and-roll situations, playmaking situations.”
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Denver is running on two engines and fumes
Don’t get me wrong. Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic were spectacular Saturday. Murray dropped 42, Jokic posted a triple-double, and Denver erased a 23-point hole to beat New Orleans 141-135 in overtime. Fun game. It also cost Jokic 44 minutes and Murray 43.
The supporting cast is thin right now. Cameron Johnson (right ankle) and Alpha Diallo (right wrist) are both doubtful, while Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther are out. Johnson already missed Saturday, and Bryce Hopkins started in his place and scored two points. When the stars aren’t carrying it, this offense can stall in a hurry. Look at Thursday in Oklahoma City, when the Nuggets scored 84 points, turned it over 22 times and watched Jokic go 5-of-19. Denver ranks 18th in offensive efficiency through two games, per TeamRankings.
Laying 7.5 asks a short-handed Denver team to win by eight against a Curry-and-Draymond group that led Memphis by 12 inside the final four minutes on Friday. I’ll take the points.
What keeps me up at night
Golden State’s defense has been awful. The Warriors allow 119.1 points per 100 possessions, 29th in the league per TeamRankings, and Phoenix ran them over 27-7 in transition. Denver at altitude is the last place a bad transition defense wants to be. Jokic is one triple-double from 200 in his regular-season career and can make any spread look silly. The Warriors also lost by 22 to the Lakers in the opener with Curry playing, and if Kerr keeps Curry’s minutes short on that knee, the cushion shrinks fast. Gui Santos (left knee tendinitis) is questionable, and Kristaps Porzingis and Jimmy Butler III remain out. I’d play Golden State down to +7. At +6.5, I’d pass.
Projected final: Nuggets 118, Warriors 113
The Pick: Warriors +7.5 (-105)
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