Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets
Monday, October 26, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Spectrum Center
The Hornets are 2-point favorites over the Wizards with a total of 229.5, and my play is Wizards +2 (-112).
Both teams are 2-1. They have not looked like the same kind of 2-1 team. Washington has a top-five pace, a positive net rating and a clear plan. Charlotte is still shorthanded, lost one home game by 47 points, and blew a 23-point lead in the other before hanging on. I’m taking the points with the team that knows what it is.
The Wizards live at the rim and the free throw line
Brian Keefe’s team isn’t trying to win a shooting contest. Washington is making only about 29 percent of its threes, and it’s 2-1 anyway because it keeps driving into the paint. The Wizards scored 70 points in the paint against Milwaukee and 62 in Chicago, and no team in the league gets to the free throw line more often relative to its shot attempts. Anthony Davis opened the season with 34 points and 12 rebounds. Trae Young has run the offense with 13, 12 and 9 assists in his three games and led the team in scoring the last two. “We were able to establish physicality,” Keefe said after Saturday’s 124-120 win over the Bulls. “We stayed with it, and that was the part that was really great.”
That style works well against this Hornets team. Charlotte ranks 27th in free throw rate, so it rarely gets to the line, and the Wizards get there all the time. That’s a few easy points a night for Washington before anyone takes a jump shot.
Charlotte is shooting threes without its best shooters
The Hornets are without Kon Knueppel (hamstring), Coby White (calf) and Grant Williams (hamstring), all ruled out on the official injury report, and Kylan Boswell is out with a knee injury. Charles Lee is still running a three-heavy offense. More than half of Charlotte’s shots have been threes, the highest share in the NBA, and the results have been rough: 102.3 points per 100 possessions, 29th in the league. Brandon Miller scored 34 against Miami, but he’s shooting 29.7 percent from the field and 7-of-35 from three this season. Lee has defended him: “That’s why you never overreact to shooting numbers or shooting slumps.”
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The turnovers are a real problem
Charlotte gives the ball away on 18 percent of its possessions, which ranks 28th. It turned it over 27 times in the loss to Atlanta and 21 times in Brooklyn. That’s a bad habit against a Washington team that has averaged nearly nine steals a game and likes to push the pace. The veteran additions have helped. Naz Reid, Grayson Allen and Dennis Schroder were the reason the Miami game didn’t get away, and Allen is 12-of-24 from three. Still, this roster is learning to play together without its second-best scorer.
What could go wrong
Charlotte hits the offensive glass hard. It ranks sixth in offensive rebound rate, and Washington ranks 25th. Extra possessions are the easiest way for a cold shooting team to make up the difference. The Wizards’ numbers also come from a soft early schedule, they lost by 10 at home to Toronto when Davis went 3-of-12, and they had 23 turnovers in that game. No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa is out again with an ankle sprain. Charlotte swept last season’s series 4-0, and if the Hornets make 16 threes the way they did against Miami, this pick is in trouble.
I still trust the team that gets to the rim and the free throw line over the one that needs its threes to fall. I’d play Washington down to +1.5. If the line moves to a pick’em, I’d take the moneyline.
Projected score: Wizards 117, Hornets 112
The Pick: Wizards +2 (-112)
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