Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers
Tuesday, October 27, 2026
11:00 PM ET, Crypto.com Arena
The Lakers are 3.5-point favorites (some shops are dealing -2.5) with a total of 236.5, and my play is the Trail Blazers +3.5 (-115).
Luka Doncic just dropped 52 on Utah, and the whole league noticed. That’s exactly why I’m taking the other side. One of these unbeaten teams loses Tuesday night, and the one with fresh legs, a deeper bench and a death grip on the backboard is wearing black and red.
The showman and the new Lakers. LeBron James is gone, and this is Luka’s team now. He’s averaging 34.3 points through three games, and coach JJ Redick summed up Sunday’s 52-point night in Salt Lake City perfectly: “When he’s in the flow state, he gets into showman mode.” Austin Reaves has been nearly as loud at 26.7 a night, and the 3-0 start has come with real chemistry for a roster that added nine new players. The catch is that the wins have been shakier than the record says. The Lakers had to climb out of an 18-point hole against the Jazz, and Doncic is coughing it up 7.0 times a game, including 11 turnovers against the Clippers.
Portland lives on the glass, and LA can’t keep a board. This is the matchup that decides it. The Lakers are pulling down just 37.0 rebounds per game, which Lakers On SI calls the worst mark in the league, while Portland is at 50.5. Utah just grabbed 20 offensive rebounds against them. Now here comes Donovan Clingan, with Robert Williams III off the bench, against a frontcourt that is thin behind Walker Kessler. Kessler has been terrific in two of three games, but the Jazz held him to two points on Sunday and he’s listed as available with a splint on his left finger.
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Depth is Portland’s whole identity. The Blazers have been the more dominant team through two games. They beat Phoenix by 41, then ground out a 128-120 win in Sacramento, where seven players scored in double figures. “The depth is why I think we’re an awfully good ballclub, quite honestly,” coach Micah Nori said afterward. Deni Avdija is the engine at 22 points a game, Damian Lillard and Ja Morant run the backcourt, and Jrue Holiday comes off the bench. Holiday and Toumani Camara are just the kind of defenders you want to throw at Doncic and Reaves for 48 minutes.
The schedule tilts it further. Portland hasn’t played since Friday. Meanwhile, this is the front end of a back-to-back for the Lakers, who head to the Clippers on Wednesday. Small edge, but real, especially for an 11 PM ET tip with a road game the next night.
Why I could be wrong. Doncic is a cheat code, and the Lakers have shot the lights out (around a 64% effective field-goal rate through three games, per the box scores). If that keeps up, rebounding margins won’t matter. Portland’s two wins also came against Phoenix and Sacramento, and neither of those teams has a Luka. Scoot Henderson (left ankle) and backup center Branden Carlson (concussion protocol) are both questionable, which trims a bit of that famous depth. Shaedon Sharpe is still out after meniscus surgery. And at the low end of the market, +2.5 is a thinner cushion than +3.5. Shop for the hook.
Projected score: Trail Blazers 119, Lakers 116. Portland wins the possession battle, and Luka gets his 35 in a losing effort.
The Pick: Trail Blazers +3.5 (-115)
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