Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Target Center, Minneapolis
The Timberwolves are 3.5-point favorites over the Warriors with a total of 228.5, and my play is the Timberwolves -3.5 (-110).
Anthony Edwards scored 47 points in 41 minutes on Monday. Now he’s headed for knee surgery, and the betting market has decided the Wolves are just a so-so home favorite against a 1-3 team. I’m not buying it.
The bad news is real. Edwards will have an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee Thursday that could sideline him for up to two months, sources told ESPN’s Shams Charania. He was averaging 33.3 points, second in the league. You don’t replace that. But Minnesota has been here before. The Wolves went 12-9 without Edwards last season, per ESPN, and this roster is deeper than that one. LaMelo Ball (14.8 points, 6.2 assists), Jaden McDaniels (15.0 points on 59% shooting) and Jonathan Kuminga can all create, and Terrence Shannon Jr. is hitting half his threes off the bench.
Minnesota doesn’t need Ant to defend. This is the part the market is skipping. The Wolves rank third in defensive rating, per Basketball Reference. They won three of their four games by 22 or more. Opponents are hitting just 28.4% of their threes. Rudy Gobert is grabbing 14.2 rebounds a game, and Minnesota rebounds 79.5% of opponents’ misses, second-best in the league. None of that left with Edwards.
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Golden State’s defense is the real injury report. The Warriors rank 29th in defensive rating, and opponents are shooting a 60.2% effective field-goal rate against them, also 29th. That number gives extra credit for threes, so it shows how many clean looks they’re giving up. They’re 28th at finishing defensive possessions with a rebound, and that’s a bad fit against a Wolves team that ranks second in offensive rebounding rate. Gobert should feast on putbacks.
The bodies are thin, too. Jimmy Butler III (ACL), Moses Moody (patellar tendon) and Kristaps Porziņģis (not with team) are all out. Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, the team’s leading scorer at 21.8 points, is questionable with left foot inflammation after dropping 31 and 12 on Denver.
Then there’s Steph. Stephen Curry is fine, and that’s the scariest thing about this bet. He went 8-of-8 from the floor for 24 points in Monday’s 134-114 rout in Denver. He also played just 26 minutes. Golden State is managing the runner’s knee that cost him 27 games last season, and he hasn’t reached 30 minutes in any game yet. “I’ve asked to do that, or if the game calls for that, I’ll be ready,” Curry told the New York Post. This isn’t a back-to-back, so a heavier load is possible. If he plays 34 and gets hot, my number is in trouble.
How I lose this one. Edwards took a ton of the shots, and some of that weight now falls on Ball and Kuminga, who aren’t always efficient. The Warriors force turnovers at the fifth-highest rate in the league, and a sloppy night from a Wolves team without its closer could flip a close fourth quarter. Most of the market sits at Minnesota -3.5. I’d still lay -4.5, but not -5.5.
Projected score: Timberwolves 115, Warriors 107
The Pick: Timberwolves -3.5 (-110)
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