New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
8:00 PM ET, United Center
The Knicks are 7.5-point favorites over the Bulls with a total of 234.5, and my play is Under 234.5 (-110).
Here’s a number that should stop you cold: 213. That’s the highest combined score in any Knicks game this season. Four games, four finals between 206 and 213, and the market wants 234.5 on the second night of a back-to-back.
The defending champs don’t do shootouts
New York has scored 104 points a game and allowed 105. Even Tuesday’s 111-97 win over Detroit, which finally got the title defense off the schneid, was a grind that came down to Karl-Anthony Towns going to war on the glass. He finished with 27 points and 20 rebounds, and Mike Brown’s message to him was blunt: “KAT, the guy is killing us on the glass.” That’s who these Knicks are right now: physical, half-court, and slow.
Now they get on a plane. This is the second night of a back-to-back, and New York’s injury report wasn’t even filed as of early Wednesday. Jose Alvarado is already listed out with an ankle injury. Tired legs on the road don’t usually lead to a track meet. They lead to Jalen Brunson walking it up and hunting mismatches.
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Chicago’s offense is shooting blanks from deep
Yes, Bulls games have been high-scoring, but look at who’s doing the scoring. Chicago has given up 129.5 points a game, including 135 in Toronto and 134 in Boston. Its own offense is a different story. The Bulls are shooting 23.8% from three, the kind of number that makes you check the box score twice. They went 4-for-36 in Toronto.
Without Nic Claxton (hamstring), and with Patrick Williams and Tobe Awaka questionable, Chicago has no size, and it showed in Boston. The Celtics grabbed 19 offensive rebounds. “When you give them second and third chances, it’s impossible,” coach Tiago Splitter said. That actually helps the Under here. New York doesn’t bomb away the way Boston does. The Knicks pound you inside with Towns and Andre Drummond, which burns clock instead of lighting up the scoreboard.
The case for the Over (and why I’m not buying it)
Chicago turns it over nearly 20 times a game, which hands the other team easy runouts. If the Knicks get loose in transition, or if Brunson and Towns pile up free throws, this can climb quickly. A Bulls team this bad defensively could also let New York finally have a breakout shooting night after the Knicks hit just 33% from deep in four games. And if the game gets out of hand, garbage-time scoring can turn a dead Under into a loss.
But this game would need to top the highest-scoring Knicks game of the season by more than 20 points to cash the Over, and they’d have to do it on tired legs. I’ll happily take that bet. I’d play this down to 231.
Projected score: Knicks 116, Bulls 106
The Pick: Under 234.5 (-110)
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