Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans
Thursday, October 29, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Smoothie King Center
The New Orleans Pelicans are 5.5-point favorites over the Sacramento Kings with the total at 237.5, and my play is Under 237.5 (-110).
Welcome to the Winless Bowl. Somebody leaves the Smoothie King Center with a first win Thursday night, and somebody else flies out 0-5 with a lot of uncomfortable questions. The story I’m betting is simpler: these are two of the worst three-point shooting teams in basketball, one of them is on tired legs, and the market has hung a total that needs both of them to play like a video game.
Sacramento is playing for its coach. The Kings have lost their four games by an average of almost 18 points, the worst margin in the league, and Doug Christie’s seat is already hot. After the Memphis loss he took it on himself: “This one’s not on them. I take this.” ESPN 1320’s Kyle Madson went further, suggesting that if the Kings go winless on this four-game road trip, those could be “the last four games Doug Christie coaches for the Kings.” Zach LaVine (27.3 points a game) and Domantas Sabonis are doing the heavy lifting. Beyond them it gets thin fast: rookie Darius Acuff Jr. is firing away at 34% shooting, the bench barely contributes, and Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud and Dylan Cardwell are all still out.
New Orleans keeps finding new ways to lose. Jamahl Mosley’s first three games were lost by a combined 10 points, including a blown 23-point lead in Denver. “Those aren’t losses, those were lessons,” Dejounte Murray said. Wednesday’s lesson came from Denver again: buried 37-18 after one quarter, a rally to within five, then a fourth-quarter fizzle in a 104-91 loss. Zion Williamson was terrific with 25 on 10-of-14. As a team, though, New Orleans went 7-of-30 from three and coughed it up 19 times. Now the Pelicans turn around and play again the very next night.
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Nobody in this building can hit a three
Here’s the heart of it. New Orleans takes the smallest share of its shots from beyond the arc of any team in the NBA and is making 29% of them. Sacramento is 28th in three-point attempt rate and shooting 30%. That’s two teams living on twos, free throws and Zion bully-ball. Games like that don’t explode the scoreboard. They grind.
Both teams play at a league-average pace, right around 101 possessions a night. Blend each offense’s points per 100 possessions with the other side’s defense and you get roughly Pelicans 119, Kings 113. That’s about 232, and it gives Sacramento’s leaky defense full credit. That defense looks so bad partly because the Kings have already seen the Clippers, Spurs and Grizzlies, the toughest schedule in the league so far, by Basketball Reference’s strength-of-schedule measure. New Orleans is not San Antonio.
Then add the fatigue. New Orleans is playing its third game in six nights, Jordan Poole left Wednesday with a left ankle injury, and Yves Missi (knee) is still out, which means more DeAndre Jordan and Derik Queen up front. Tired legs show up first in jump shots and transition, which are the two things a game needs to clear 237.
And the number itself is stretched. This is the highest total Sacramento has seen all season; its three overs came against lines of 232.5 to 234.5. The Pelicans’ game Wednesday closed at 240.5 and landed at 195.
The case against me
The Kings can’t guard anyone. Opponents are shooting a .579 effective field-goal percentage against them (that’s a stat that gives threes extra credit), which is 28th in the league, and the Spurs just hung 130 on them. If the Pelicans finally find their shooting touch, New Orleans could get to 125 by itself. LaVine is capable of a 37-point night like the one he had against Memphis. The Pelicans also get to the line a lot, and free throws stop the clock. Four-game samples can lie. If this total slides below 234 before tip, most of the edge is gone, and I’d pass at 233.5 or lower.
Projected score: Pelicans 118, Kings 112. New Orleans finally gets Mosley his first win, and nobody needs a calculator for the total.
The Pick: Under 237.5 (-110)
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