Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers
Thursday, October 29, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Moda Center
The Trail Blazers are 7.5-point favorites over the Memphis Grizzlies with a total of 234.5, and my play is Grizzlies +7.5 (-110).
Everybody is going to watch Ja Morant tonight. I’m going to bet on the team he left behind.
Morant gets his first crack at the Grizzlies since Memphis shipped him to Portland on June 29 for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray. He swears it’s no big deal. “I’m not a big grudge guy or anything like that,” Morant said Wednesday. “It’s no different for me, just another basketball game on the schedule for us and we’re looking to stay undefeated.” His dad, Tee Morant, is less zen about it, promising the Grizzlies a “reckoning.” Ja’s response: “that’s my pops, that’s how he feels.”
Great theater. But theater doesn’t cover spreads, and this number is asking a 4-0 team to lose by eight.
Memphis traded its star and got better at the boring stuff
The post-Ja Grizzlies were supposed to be a teardown. Instead they’re 4-0 for the first time since 2014. They’re also 4-0 against the spread. Ty Jerome has turned into a bucket machine at 29.8 points a game, including a 45-point opener against Utah. Rookie Cameron Boozer, the No. 3 overall pick, has been a monster on the glass at 10.5 rebounds a night even while his jumper has gone missing.
What gets me is the defense. Memphis allows 1.038 points per possession, sixth-best in the league per TeamRankings. Portland sits 12th at 1.061. And the Grizzlies own the offensive glass, grabbing 32.8% of their own misses, third in the NBA. That’s a team that makes you work for every stop and then steals extra trips anyway.
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Portland’s defense has been living on borrowed jump shots
The Blazers can score. Their offense ranks first at 1.240 points per possession, and a backcourt of Damian Lillard and Morant with Deni Avdija (22.3 a game) is a real problem. I’m not doubting that end.
I’m doubting the other end. Opponents are shooting just 29.0% from three against Portland, third-lowest in the league, and a big chunk of that came from holding Phoenix to 83 points in a 41-point blowout. Three games in, that’s more luck than lockdown. When the shots start falling, you get what happened Tuesday: the Lakers dropped 129 on them. The only time Portland laid a big number, as a 9.5-point favorite at Sacramento, it won by eight and didn’t cover.
The market is sniffing it too. This line sat at Portland -8.5 on Wednesday and has been bet down to -7.5. And the Grizzlies come in with two days off since beating Utah on Monday, while Portland has one off day after a shootout in Los Angeles.
The case against the Grizzlies
Ball security can sink this ticket. Memphis coughs it up on 16.5% of its possessions, 25th in the league, and it nearly gave away the Golden State game with a pile of giveaways. Portland is a ballhawking group with 8.3 steals a game, and live-ball turnovers turn into Lillard and Morant layups. Jerome is also scoring at a pace nobody keeps up all season, Boozer’s shot still hasn’t shown up, and this is the fourth straight road game for Memphis. If Ja turns the emotion into a 35-point night, all of my math gets dunked on.
Projected score: Trail Blazers 117, Grizzlies 113
Portland probably wins this game. I just don’t think it wins by eight against a defense this stubborn, with the market already leaning my way. Take the points and enjoy the Ja show.
The Pick: Grizzlies +7.5
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