Northwestern at Oregon
Prediction on the Dog
Nonsense to follow, sorry.
If you just want picks, skip to the end.
Okay, I don’t like to do this but it has to be done.
I have to name a play.
I can’t keep saying/writing, “This is that play that I used for the first time in the bowl season last year, yadda, yadda, yadda.”
It only kicked out one play last week, Virginia Tech +3.
And I said if the play won I’d name it for future use.
They won, SU.
In my database it’s charted as “RVGRF” for Red Vs Green, Red’s the Fav but I want a shorter name.
It uses a rarely used or discussed stat.
For example, let’s say turnovers.
Each team with a negative on turnovers for the season gets a red number next to it, teams with a positive number get a green number.
If team A is -4 on the season for turnovers there’s a red 4 next to their name. If team B is +7 they get a green 7.
When the team with the red number is laying points to the team with a green number, they’re the Fade.
Betting against the red team was 4-10 in the Bowl season (eliminating Memphis and Missouri State as I’ve mentioned before.)
That was good for a 71% Fade.
It was 2-5 going into the V Tech game, 2-6 now, a 75% Fade.
The play always involves a Dog that my numbers say has a high percentage of winning so I thought maybe I’d call it the Live Dog spot.
But then I thought that was stupid.
And then I realized they’re ALL stupid names, it’s STUPID putting names on them in the first place.
But I have to have a way to refer to them.
Anyway, WHATEVER it’s going to be called, I started out with two of them this week, Northwestern and Baylor.
The line opened with the Bears as +2 Dogs.
The line has flipped, Baylor is now the Fav.
I have no data on when one of these plays go from Dog to Fav. Since the play calls for Dogs this game no longer qualifies.
That leaves me with Northwestern.
The line opened at Oregon -4 but right now the common number is -3′.
Let’s look at some basics.
The Wildcats are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS.
The Ducks are 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS.
Northwestern is 1-1 on the Rd,.
Their only loss came against Number 4 Indiana, by just six points. The Ducks are nowhere near the quality of Indiana.
The Wildcats haven’t lost since September.
The Ducks have lost two of their last three.
Oregon started out the season ranked number two and has not lived up to expectations. Currently they’re not even in the top 20.
The usually explosive Ducks offense is broken, averaging just 14 points over their last three games.
Over that same period of time the Wildcat’s offense has been rolling, averaging 37 PPG.
My money is on the team with the hot hand vs the team that’s cold, the team that’s getting +3′ and has a good chance to win outright, SU.
My play:
Northwestern+3′
Recap: 0-1
Record: 15-15
Review: For the second week in a row, James Madison head coach Billy Napier’s moronic coaching decisions cost his team a game, removing any chance at making the playoffs.
They were 21 point Favs at Hm – and they lost SU!
The Dukes scored a touchdown on their first three possessions and then ZERO points for the rest of the game.
There will DEFINITELY be more on this in my weekly Review and Rant article.
(And yes, I noticed I STILL did not name this play. But, if Northwestern covers on Saturday…)
