New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Friday, October 30, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena
The Knicks are 1.5-point road favorites with the total at 228.5. My play is the Under 228.5 (-110).
The last time these teams met, the 76ers spoiled New York’s championship ring night 106-100 and the two teams combined for 206 points. Ten days later, the market wants us to believe they’ll find 22 more.
The Knicks are breathing again. The defending champs started 0-3 and were one loss from becoming only the second title team in NBA history to open 0-4. Then they beat Detroit by 14 behind 27 points and 20 rebounds from Karl-Anthony Towns and came back from 19 down in Chicago, where Jalen Brunson scored 38 in a 133-127 win. Towns banged his left wrist in that game and Landry Shamet twisted an ankle, but both came back, and neither is on Friday’s official injury report. Mike Brown wasn’t worried about his center: “He was still shooting that thang from 30 feet, so the wrist looked OK to me.” The only Knick listed is Jose Alvarado, who’s out with a sprained ankle.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, is 4-1 on muscle and defense, not shot-making. Tyrese Maxey is pouring in 28.4 points a night with Joel Embiid, LeBron James and Jaylen Brown next to him, and the Sixers allow just under a point per possession, second-best in the league. But their offense ranks 26th, and their effective shooting percentage (the stat that counts threes as worth 1.5 twos) is 29th. That’s an all-star lineup putting up a bottom-five offense.
Two cold-shooting offenses. New York isn’t much better, at 25th in effective shooting and 21st in points per possession. Chicago gave up 133 to them, but the Knicks’ other four games produced 206, 210, 213 and 208 total points. Philadelphia’s five games have gone 206, 220, 243, 199 and 223. That’s two of ten over this number.
The BEST 2026 Basketball Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
No free possessions. Overs need easy buckets, and this matchup doesn’t have many. Philadelphia turns the ball over on just 12.4% of its trips, the lowest rate in the NBA, and New York forces turnovers less often than all but two teams. That kills the steal-and-dunk transition game. On the glass, the Sixers grab only 18.9% of their own misses (last in the league) and run into a Knicks team that ranks second in defensive rebounding with Towns pulling down 13.8 boards a night. When Philly misses, the possession is usually over.
The Jaylen Brown factor. Brown is questionable with left knee soreness. He’s giving Philly 20.6 points in 36.3 minutes a night, and he was a big part of the opening-night win with 19 points, eight boards and six assists. If he sits, the Sixers lose a scorer and lean even harder on Maxey. The market has already moved this total down from 231.5, and I still think it’s too high.
Where the Under can crack. The Sixers play fast (sixth in pace), and the Knicks just scored 133 in Chicago. New York ranks seventh in offensive rebounding against a Philly team that’s 24th at cleaning its own glass, so second-chance points could add up. Anfernee Simons dropped six threes at Indiana, and one hot shooting night from him or Shamet can push a game past 228. Overtime is the other way an Under dies. Embiid and LeBron aren’t on the report for the front end of this back-to-back, so Philly should have its full star group outside of Brown. I’m fine with that, because they’ve still been a below-average offense with all of them.
Put the pace and efficiency numbers together and this looks like a game in the 210s. I’d play the Under down to 225.
Projected score: 76ers 108, Knicks 106
The Pick: Under 228.5
Ride the Under in a Friday night grind and bring some extra bankroll into the weekend. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Knicks-76ers Under 228.5 and the rest of your NBA picks.
