Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Friday, October 30, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Mortgage Matchup Center
The Nuggets are 4.5-point road favorites with a total of 231.5, and my play is Under 231.5 (-115).
Who’s playing faster than everyone else in the NBA? Not these two. Phoenix plays at the slowest pace in the league, and Denver is fourth-slowest. When two of the most patient teams in basketball share a floor, 232 points is a big ask.
Slow and slower. Pace is just the number of possessions a team uses in 48 minutes. The Suns average 95.7 and the Nuggets 97.5, while the league average is 100.9. That’s roughly four fewer trips per team than a normal game, which shaves eight to ten points off the night before anyone takes a shot. Run the efficiency numbers through a pace in the mid-90s and you land in the low 220s, not up at 232.
Denver’s offense has a flat tire. This is the strange part of Denver’s start. The Nuggets are scoring just 110.7 points per 100 possessions, below league average, and hitting 33% from three. Coach David Adelman’s message is simple: “If you shoot it and you miss, and you are open the next play, shoot it again.” Fair enough, but the misses keep piling up. Denver has held its last opponent to 91 and scored 84 in Oklahoma City. Cam Johnson, the former Sun, is questionable with the ankle that’s cost him three games, so the spacing help isn’t a sure thing.
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Jokic will feast, but feasting takes time. Nikola Jokic just posted his 200th career regular-season triple-double, putting him nine behind Russell Westbrook’s record. He’s walking into a mismatch: Phoenix is last in the NBA at grabbing defensive rebounds and is playing without center Mark Williams (shoulder surgery). Head coach Jordan Ott admitted, “We need to find that 48 minutes of great center play.” Expect Jokic to punish a young frontcourt in the post. Post-ups and second-chance possessions burn clock, though, and every trip that ends with Jokic backing someone down for 15 seconds is a trip this total doesn’t get back.
Booker is a coin flip. Devin Booker has looked like two different players in his last two games. He dropped a franchise home-opener record 43 on Golden State, then scored three points in Oklahoma City while the Thunder sent bodies at him. “I just have to find better ways to be more aggressive,” he said. Phoenix’s offense sits at 110.4 points per 100, so even a big Booker night doesn’t guarantee a track meet.
Where I could get burned. Phoenix has the league’s worst defense at 124.9 points allowed per 100 possessions, and a red-hot Denver shooting night could blow the doors off. The Suns are also rested, with three days off since Monday, and fresh legs can mean a fast start. This total has already dropped from 233.5, so some of the value is gone. I’d play it down to 228 and pass below that.
Projected score: Nuggets 116, Suns 108
The Pick: Under 231.5 (-115)
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