Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics
Friday, October 30, 2026
7:30 PM ET, TD Garden
The Celtics are 15.5-point favorites with the total at 235.5, and my play is the Bulls +15.5 (-110).
Is anybody actually going to bet on Chicago after Monday? That’s exactly the point. Boston beat the Bulls 134-99 at TD Garden four days ago, and thanks to a scheduling quirk the Bulls are back in the same building for an NBA Cup group game. The market has a long memory for blowouts. This line opened at Boston -11.5, and Monday’s game closed at -14.5. Now it’s 15.5. I’ll take the points.
Monday was a Payton Pritchard heater, not a blueprint
Boston led by 12 at the half Monday, which is about where the oddsmakers expected the game to be. Then Pritchard made all five of his threes in the third quarter, scored 19 in the period, and the Celtics won the quarter 39-21. That’s a guy catching fire, not something Boston can repeat on command. The Celtics are legitimately good, with the fifth-best offense in the league by points per possession, and Jayson Tatum is rolling. He’s averaging 28 a night and hit an overtime buzzer-beater Tuesday to finish off a 40-point game against Brooklyn. But Boston needed overtime and a missed Nets layup to beat a winless team that night. These Celtics are good, not a juggernaut that blows teams out every night.
Chicago’s jumper can’t stay this broken
The Bulls are shooting 27.6% from three, dead last in the NBA. That number is too ugly to last, and it’s already turning. Chicago went 18-for-42 from deep against the Knicks on Wednesday and led the defending champs by as many as 19 before losing 133-127. Norman Powell scored 30 on 10-of-15 shooting and had a look at a tying three in the final minute. Caleb Wilson (20.8 points a game) and Powell (21.6) give Chicago two real scorers, and Boston’s perimeter defense sits 18th in opponent three-point percentage. That isn’t a wall.
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Pace is the underdog’s friend
Chicago plays faster than anyone in the league. That cuts both ways, but with a number this big, every extra possession is another chance for a 20-point Boston lead to shrink to 14 once the starters sit. More trips mean more swings, and when you’re getting 15.5, swings are your friend. A backdoor cover is still a cover.
What could go wrong
The Bulls defense is genuinely bad. It ranks 28th in points allowed per possession, and opponents are hitting 40.6% of their threes, 29th in the league, against a Boston team that ranks fifth from deep. The Celtics also force turnovers on 18% of possessions, fourth-best in the NBA, and Chicago’s 25 giveaways on Monday were a big part of the rout. Nic Claxton is out with a hamstring, Jalen Smith (finger) and Patrick Williams (groin) are questionable, and Smith’s 17 points and 11 rebounds against New York would be a real loss up front. The Bulls already lost 135-92 in Toronto this season, so a total no-show is on the table. Below +13.5, I’m out.
Projected score: Celtics 121, Bulls 109. Tatum gets his, Boston wins comfortably, and Chicago’s shooters do enough to keep it inside the number.
The Pick: Bulls +15.5 (-110)
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