Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs
Saturday, October 31, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Frost Bank Center
San Antonio is a 12.5-point home favorite over Minnesota, with the total at 226.5. My play is Under 226.5 (-110).
Nearly every bettor in the building wants the Over here. I’m going the other way, and I’ve got the line movement and a tired road team on my side.
The tell in the number. This total opened at 227.5. Since then, roughly 97% of the tickets and 97% of the money in the public betting splits have landed on the Over, and the number dropped a full point anyway. When a total falls against that kind of one-way traffic, somebody with real money is on the other side. I’d rather stand with them than with the crowd.
Minnesota’s legs are the story. The Wolves beat the Clippers 127-101 at home on Friday night, so this is the second half of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights. They’re also playing without Anthony Edwards, who had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee and is expected to miss roughly two months. He was scoring more than 33 points a game. In their first game without him, against Golden State, the Wolves managed 114 points.
Friday was a nice bounce-back. LaMelo Ball hit six threes on his way to 24 points, and the bench poured in 51. “They’ve come in, they’ve got energy, they’ve gotten easy baskets,” Chris Finch said. That kind of bench burst is hard to repeat on the road the next night against a rested team.
The BEST 2026 Basketball Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Two defenses that don’t give anything away. Minnesota has the best defensive rating in the league so far, per Basketball Reference, and holds opponents to the fourth-lowest effective field goal percentage. San Antonio ranks seventh in defensive rating, and it sends opponents to the free throw line less often than any team in the NBA. That matters here, because the Wolves already rank 28th in getting to the line. Take away the free points and the scoreboard moves slowly.
The Spurs don’t need to run. San Antonio plays at a middling pace, 18th in the league, and turns the ball over less than anyone. Live-ball turnovers lead to easy transition buckets, and the Spurs just don’t give many away. Victor Wembanyama (25.0 points, 11.4 rebounds) is coming off 36 and 14 in an overtime win at Utah, but four of the Spurs’ five games have finished at 228 or below, and the overtime game at Utah was tied 105-105 when regulation ended.
There’s history here, too. San Antonio knocked Minnesota out of last spring’s West semifinals in six games on the way to the Finals. The Wolves have reshaped the roster since, with Julius Randle and Naz Reid gone and Ball in, but the Spurs are still the measuring stick, and Mitch Johnson’s group has won three straight after an 0-2 start.
How this goes wrong. Minnesota takes almost 44% of its shots from three, and a hot shooting night can wreck any Under on its own; Ball proved that Friday. A Spurs blowout is another danger, since garbage-time minutes get sloppy and fast. And if the Wolves’ bench keeps its legs, this pace could pick up in a hurry.
Projected score. I see the Spurs controlling this one in the half court and a worn-down Wolves offense running out of answers late. Spurs 116, Timberwolves 104.
The Pick: Under 226.5 (-110)
Fade the Over crowd on a tired-legs spot and bring some extra bankroll into Halloween night. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Under 226.5 and the rest of your NBA picks.
