Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz
Saturday, October 31, 2026
3:00 PM ET, Delta Center
The Trail Blazers are 6.5-point road favorites with the total at 231.5, and my play is Portland -6.5 (-105).
Portland lost its shiny new point guard on Thursday night, and the betting market shrugged. I’m with the market. Losing Ja Morant hurts. Running into a Utah team that is missing most of its frontcourt helps a lot more.
Portland has the bodies to survive this
Morant left Thursday’s 124-103 loss to Memphis in the fourth quarter, his first game against his old team. On Friday the Blazers announced a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and said he’ll be out at least four weeks. That’s a real blow. He was giving them 15.8 points a night.
The thing is, Morant was never the engine. Deni Avdija is. He’s averaging 22.8 points and 6.5 assists First-year coach Micah Nori also has a proven veteran guard to lean on. Jrue Holiday dropped 22 on the Lakers on Tuesday, and Scoot Henderson gets more run too. This is still a top-three offense in the league, and its 57.2% effective field goal percentage (shooting with threes counted for the extra point) is second-best in the NBA, even after Thursday’s clunker.
Utah is playing without its two best bigs
Utah is 1-4 and has lost three straight. The roster looks like a triage unit. Jaren Jackson Jr. tore the MCL in his right knee in Monday’s loss to Memphis and is out for weeks. Jusuf Nurkic hasn’t played this season because of a foot injury. Lauri Markkanen sprained his right wrist in that same Memphis game and is questionable. Without them, the Jazz are leaning on Jaxson Hayes up front against Donovan Clingan, who pulls down nine rebounds a game.
The defense has been leaky all season. Utah gives up 1.144 points per possession, 26th in the league, and opponents are hitting 37.9% from three against them.
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The Jazz keep giving the ball away
This is the number I care about most. Utah turns it over on 16.4% of its trips, which ranks 24th, and forces fewer turnovers than any team in the league. Portland is fifth-best at holding onto the ball. So every night Utah gives away a handful of extra chances and gets almost none back. Against an offense this efficient, that’s how a six-point game turns into a 12-point game.
Keyonte George is doing everything he can. He’s scoring 24.4 a night and had a season-high 31 in Wednesday’s overtime loss to San Antonio, but the AP noted he looked gassed by the end. Rookie Darryn Peterson is shooting 35.4% and got benched down the stretch of that game. “In that moment, I felt it was better to go with Brice [Sensabaugh],” Will Hardy told the Salt Lake Tribune. A rookie still learning on the job and a star guard running on fumes is a rough combination against a deep backcourt.
Why I could be wrong
If Markkanen plays, Utah gets back a forward scoring 16 a night and a real frontcourt option. Portland’s jumper can go cold too. The Blazers went 12-for-49 from deep on Thursday, and Damian Lillard (36 years old) shot 3-for-13. They’re on one day of rest with travel and a 1 PM local tip, and Robert Williams III (knee management) and Chris Youngblood (ankle) are both questionable. About 84% of spread bets are on Portland, so I’m not alone on this side. I’d play it up to -7.5 and pass beyond that.
Projected score: Trail Blazers 121, Jazz 111. Avdija and Holiday control the game, Clingan owns the paint, and Utah’s turnovers turn a close third quarter into a comfortable finish.
The Pick: Trail Blazers -6.5 (-105)
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