Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
Monday, November 2, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Chase Center
The Warriors are 4.5-point favorites over the Suns with a total of 227.5. My play is Warriors -4.5 (-110).
Phoenix’s only win this season came against a Golden State team that showed up without its best player. Tonight, the best player is expected back.
Go back to October 24. The Warriors were playing their third game in four nights and left Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski and Al Horford out of the trip to Phoenix. Devin Booker put up 43 on 17-of-25 shooting and the Suns won 131-122. Phoenix hasn’t won since, and Golden State hasn’t lost since.
The Warriors got the hard part done on Sunday
This is the back end of a home back-to-back, and normally that’s where you’d fade the home team. Not this time. Golden State rested Curry and Green on Sunday, not tonight, and still beat the Clippers 124-112. Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg scored a career-high 37 on 13-of-19 shooting, the most points by a Warriors rookie since Curry dropped 42 at Portland in 2010. Golden State’s bench added 40 more.
So Phoenix doesn’t get the tired, short-handed Warriors. It gets Curry, averaging 29.2 points and hitting 44% from deep, after a night off. It also gets a Warriors offense that ranks fifth in points per possession, fires threes at the fifth-highest rate in the league and leads the NBA in grabbing its own misses.
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Phoenix can’t guard anybody right now
The Suns rank dead last in defensive rating, allowing 126.3 points per 100 possessions, and only one team lets opponents shoot better. That’s the worst possible defense to bring into a building where Curry hunts open looks off every screen. The 124-83 opening-night loss in Portland set the tone, and Denver hung 127 on them Friday.
Booker is still Booker (22.3 points a night), and getting Oso Ighodaro back from an oblique strain helps a frontcourt that’s missing Mark Williams (shoulder surgery) for months. Collin Gillespie isn’t panicking either: “the world’s not ending. We were 1-4 to start the year last year, and we just continually got better,” he said after the Denver loss. Fair enough. But that’s a long-term fix, and this line is about one night.
The betting results tell the same story. Phoenix is 0-4 against the spread, while Golden State has covered five of seven.
The case against me
Everything hinges on Curry and Green suiting up. Both were expected back for this one, but the Warriors hadn’t filed their official injury report as of Monday morning, and if either one sits, this number is too high. Lendeborg and Podziemski also logged 34 and 37 minutes on Sunday, and the second night of a back-to-back can show up in the fourth quarter. And Booker has already shown he can drop 43 on this team. If he goes off again, the Suns will be close late.
Projected score: Warriors 120, Suns 110
I’d lay it up to -5.5. Past that, the value gets thin.
The Pick: Warriors -4.5 (-110)
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