Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs
Monday, November 2, 2026
8:30 PM ET, Frost Bank Center
The Spurs are 16.5-point favorites with a total of 231.5. My play is Spurs -16.5 (-105).
Five days ago the Jazz dragged San Antonio to overtime in Salt Lake City and lost 117-111. That’s the game everyone taking the points will point to. I think it’s the best thing that could have happened to this line.
That overtime game was a mirage. Utah had the home crowd and Keyonte George went off for 31, and it still wasn’t enough to beat a Spurs team that answered with 36 from Victor Wembanyama. Since then the Jazz have gone back to being the Jazz. They lost 112-90 at home to Portland on Saturday, their fourth straight loss, and now sit at 1-5. They rank 26th in offensive efficiency and 24th on defense per TeamRankings, which is a polite way of saying they don’t do either end particularly well right now.
Wemby is in a mood. Wembanyama is averaging 28.0 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.2 blocks, and on Saturday he torched Minnesota for 43 points on a career-high 34 shots with six blocks. It was the first time San Antonio had won a game in which he took 30 or more shots, per ESPN. Dylan Harper chipped in 25 and De’Aaron Fox runs the show at 7.0 assists a game. The Spurs have won four straight, are 4-2, and are top 10 on both ends of the floor.
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Utah is missing too much size. The Jazz are without Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee), Jusuf Nurkic (foot) and Trey Alexander (knee). Losing two frontcourt anchors against the most disruptive big man in basketball is like bringing a garden hose to a wildfire. Utah is also coughing up 17.7 turnovers a game, while San Antonio takes care of the ball at 13.7, so the Spurs should win the possession battle too. For San Antonio, Tobias Harris (calf) and Jayden Quaintance (knee) are out, but neither changes the top of this rotation.
The numbers say this should be a bigger number. When I put the Spurs’ offense against Utah’s defense, and vice versa, at the pace both teams play, I get a margin right around 20 points. The market has already moved from 15.5 to 16.5, and I’d still lay it at 17.5. Utah allows 118.8 points a game and scores 108.7. That’s a double-digit hole before you account for Wembanyama, the venue or the Jazz’s lack of size.
The case against me. Sixteen and a half is a lot of points to lay in the NBA, and blowouts have a way of getting weird in the fourth quarter. If San Antonio is up 25 after three, the Spurs can rest their starters, and Utah’s young guards could pile up garbage-time buckets for a backdoor cover. The Jazz also proved last week that they can hang with this team for 48 minutes when the shots fall. And San Antonio is only 2-2 at home, so Frost Bank Center hasn’t been a fortress yet.
Projected score: Spurs 125, Jazz 105
The Pick: Spurs -16.5 (-105)
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