Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets
Monday, November 2, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Ball Arena
The Nuggets are 4.5-point favorites with a total of 230.5. My play is Trail Blazers +4.5 (-115).
Who’s the better team right now? If you said Denver because of the jersey and the guy in the middle, the numbers would like a word.
Portland is 4-1, third in the West, and a perfect 3-0 on the road. The Blazers rank fourth in offensive efficiency and sixth on defense per TeamRankings. Denver, at 3-2, is 11th on offense and 21st on defense. Most of the betting is coming in on the Nuggets anyway, and this spread has been pushed from 3.5 to 4.5. I’ll happily take the extra point.
Yes, losing Ja Morant hurts. No, it doesn’t sink them.
The bad news landed Thursday. Ja Morant’s first game against Memphis, the team that traded him, ended with a hamstring injury that will keep him out at least four weeks, and the Grizzlies won 124-103. Shaedon Sharpe is also out with a knee injury. So how did Portland respond? By going to Utah on Saturday and winning 112-90.
This roster is deep in exactly the right places. Deni Avdija is averaging 23.0 points and 5.6 assists and has become the hub, Damian Lillard adds 19.2 a night, and Jrue Holiday gives first-year coach Micah Nori a steady hand off the bench. Scoot Henderson steps into the starting lineup with something to prove. He’s a restricted free agent next summer and admits it’s been a slow start. “I’m not going back down from the challenge,” he said.
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Ball Arena hasn’t been scary yet
Denver’s two home games have been chaos. The Nuggets needed to rally from 23 points down to beat New Orleans 141-135 in overtime, then got blown out 134-114 by Golden State in the next one. Two games is a tiny sample, but they’ve allowed 1.252 points per possession at home, and a defense that bleeds like that isn’t one I’m laying points behind against a top-five offense.
Credit where it’s due: the Nuggets are finally whole. Cameron Johnson is back from his ankle injury, and Christian Braun just poured in a career-high 31 on 7-of-9 from three in Friday’s win at Phoenix. Jamal Murray is scoring 25.8 a game, and Nikola Jokic is still Nikola Jokic at 21.2 points, 9.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists. Julian Strawther (knee) and Spencer Jones (hamstring) remain out.
What could go wrong
Jokic is the kind of problem that turns a five-point game into a 15-point game in one quarter, and Donovan Clingan will need to stay out of foul trouble to keep him honest. Portland’s strong efficiency numbers also include games with Morant, and the offense could stall in the half court without its best creator. Denver gets an extra day of rest, too. The Nuggets haven’t played since Friday, while Portland played Saturday afternoon at altitude in Salt Lake City. If Braun keeps shooting like that, Denver’s starting five is as good as anyone’s.
Projected score: Nuggets 115, Blazers 113
The Pick: Trail Blazers +4.5 (-115)
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