Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers
Monday, November 2, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena
The 76ers are 11.5-point favorites over the Bulls with a total of 239.5. My play is Under 239.5 (-108).
“I just feel like we laid down.” That was Bulls rookie Caleb Wilson after Friday’s 125-111 loss in Boston, and it was about as honest as a 1-5 team gets. Chicago has allowed at least 124 points in every game this season. So yes, I know how this looks. I’m betting the Under anyway, because the market is pricing this game like a Bulls game. It’s a Sixers game.
Look at where the two teams live. Chicago plays at the fastest pace in the NBA, roughly 106 possessions a game, and its six games have averaged about 243 combined points. Philadelphia is a completely different animal. The Sixers have played seven games, and their totals have landed between 191 and 243. Only one of those seven cleared tonight’s number, and five went under the posted total. This line sits right on top of Chicago’s average and miles above Philly’s.
Nick Nurse’s team won’t feed the track meet
The 6-1 start hasn’t been built on fireworks. Philadelphia owns the third-best defense in the league at 105.4 points allowed per 100 possessions, and it turns the ball over less often than any team in the NBA. That second part matters more than it sounds. Chicago wants a track meet, and nothing starts one faster than a pile of turnovers. Philly doesn’t give it the fuel. The Sixers play a touch slower than league average and lean on Tyrese Maxey (29.6 points a game) to create in the half court.
They’re also a team that wins close. Their six victories have come by 6, 8, 11, 5, 5 and 5 points, and they’ve had to claw back late more than once. Nurse summed it up after Saturday’s comeback in Charlotte: “No matter what’s happened so far, we just keep staying with it and playing.” That’s not a team that’s been dropping 130 on people.
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Chicago’s offense is the other half of the case. The Bulls fire nearly half their shots from deep, but they don’t make enough of them, with an effective field goal percentage of .482 that ranks dead last in the league. They went 15-for-50 from 3 in Boston on Friday. Against a Philly defense that holds teams to the fourth-lowest effective shooting mark in the league, it’s hard to see Chicago getting to 110 without help. Nic Claxton is doubtful with a hamstring strain, which takes away one of their few interior options.
Then there’s the star-power question. Joel Embiid is questionable on the league’s injury report, listed for right foot plantar fascia injury management. LeBron James sat Saturday’s back-to-back finale and was not on the league’s injury report as of early Monday. CBS Sports reported both are expected to play. If either sits, Philadelphia’s half-court offense gets even slower. That’s fine by me.
What could blow this up
Chicago’s defense is a sieve, and I won’t pretend otherwise. The Bulls are giving up 129.3 points per game, the most in the league, and Philly could hang 125 by itself on a hot Maxey night. The Bulls also crash the offensive glass hard, and second chances mean extra possessions. If this turns into a 30-point blowout, the final six minutes of bench-on-bench chucking can add a dozen cheap points. And yes, these teams combined for 294 in Philadelphia last season, a 157-137 Sixers win. It’s a real risk. I just think tonight’s number asks the Sixers to play a style they haven’t touched all year.
Projected score: 76ers 120, Bulls 106
The Pick: Under 239.5 (-108)
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