Merrimack at Wake Forest
Saturday, November 7, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Wake Forest is a 48.5-point favorite over Merrimack with a total of 60.5, and my play is Under 60.5.
Nobody is betting this game to find out who wins. The Demon Deacons are 7-1, ranked No. 14 in the AP poll, and have won 20 straight against FCS opponents dating back to 2000. The real question is how long Jake Dickert keeps his foot on the gas with a trip to SMU waiting next Saturday. My answer: not very long.
Wake Forest has been a wrecking ball. October was a month-long highlight reel. Wake went unbeaten against Stanford, NC State, Cal and Virginia and outscored them 187-31, and the rout of Stanford was the biggest win over an ACC opponent in program history.
Gio Lopez, the transfer from North Carolina, has 18 touchdown passes against one interception and 24 total touchdowns, and Carlos Hernandez (856 receiving yards) keeps getting behind defenses. In year two, Dickert has this team playing like it expects to be in Charlotte in December.
And that’s exactly why the starters won’t be around long. Wake plays at SMU next week, then at Georgia Tech, then hosts Duke. That stretch decides the ACC race. Merrimack is the breather in the middle, and no coach chasing a title runs Lopez out there in the fourth quarter of a 40-point game. Look at the blowouts this team has already posted. Stanford ended at 60 total points and Virginia at 58, and those were conference games where the starters played longer than they will Saturday. To get past 60.5, Wake would almost need to hang 55 by itself, mostly with the second unit, while the clock runs.
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Merrimack plays keep-away, and Wake will happily let it. The Warriors are 4-5 as an FCS independent and live on the ground. Running back Matthias Latham has over 600 rushing yards and quarterback AJ Hairston leads the team with five rushing touchdowns. Merrimack holds the ball for 32 minutes and 25 seconds a game. That’s an offense that grinds out long, slow drives, and long, slow drives are the best friend of an Under ticket. The problem for the Warriors is what happens at the end of those drives. They score 18 points a game against FCS competition and convert just 32 percent of their third downs. Against Rhode Island and Delaware, they managed one touchdown apiece.
Now line that up against Wake’s run defense, which gives up 82.9 rushing yards a game, sixth-best in the country. Merrimack’s whole plan is to run the ball, and it’s running into a wall. I’d be surprised if the Warriors find the end zone more than once.
The fumble factor. Merrimack has turned it over 19 times this season, and 11 of those were lost fumbles. That’s a lot of free possessions, and a scoop-and-score or two short fields can push Wake’s total into the 60s before anyone notices. Wake has also been ruthless in the red zone, scoring on 37 of its 39 trips. The backups are still ACC players, too. If they keep scoring against tired FCS legs, this total can climb fast, and a gusty forecast won’t slow down a team that runs the ball as well as Wake does.
Still, the most likely game script is easy to picture: Wake leads by 35 at halftime, Lopez puts on a headset, the clock keeps running, and Merrimack spends the second half running the ball into the middle of the line. That’s an Under script all day.
One note on the number: since this is an FCS opponent, a lot of shops won’t hang a line, and the total is floating between 59.5 and 60.5 where it’s posted. Grab 60.5 if you can. I’d still play it down to 58.5.
Projected score: Wake Forest 49, Merrimack 6
The Pick: Under 60.5
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