Radford at California
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Haas Pavilion
California is a 15.5-point favorite over Radford with the total at 156.5. My play is Under 156.5 (-110).
Who on Radford is supposed to score 70 points tonight? That’s the question I keep landing on, and I can’t find a good answer. Cal’s 115-point opener is going to pull a lot of casual money toward a shootout in Berkeley. The team walking in the door Wednesday is a big reason I’m going the other way.
Radford is still learning each other’s names
Zach Chu did a nice job in Year 1. Radford went 16-16, finished third in the Big South and got him named a finalist for the top first-year coach award. Then the roster flipped again. The Highlanders have 10 newcomers, and nobody back from last season averaged even 15 minutes a game. The Big South coaches picked them sixth out of nine.
Monday at San Francisco showed exactly what that looks like. Radford coughed it up 19 times, scored 62 points, and fouled so much that the Dons shot 35 free throws. Mathieu Grujicic and Ja’Corey Robinson had six turnovers each. Grujicic is a real talent who led the 2025 U18 EuroBasket in scoring, but this group has no proven lead guard yet. Per Big South Hoops Hub, no Radford guard has averaged more than 7 points per game in a Division I season.
Last year’s Radford team ran (11th in the country in possessions per game), but that was a different roster. This version played a game of only about 67 possessions on Monday and still couldn’t crack 65 points.
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That 115 came against a Division II team
Credit Cal for the fireworks. The Bears set a school record with 66 first-half points against Adams State, shot 61% and made their first six threes. Michael Cooper hit 6-of-8 from deep off the bench, Sammie Yeanay threw down 21 points and Nojus Indrusaitis added 20. Mark Madsen wants to run more this year, too.
But Adams State was picked ninth in its Division II league and even called the game an exhibition. Madsen sounded like a coach who doesn’t plan to let one track meet decide his identity: “We need to win the games that are slug-it-out, 10-yards-in-a-cloud-of-dust,” he said afterward.
Cal also has a lot of size, with five players 6-10 or taller, and last year’s defense was the better half of the team (77th nationally in points allowed per possession). Against a turnover-prone offense with no go-to scorer, I expect Radford’s possessions to end in a lot of contested twos, rushed threes and live-ball giveaways. Cal led wire to wire Monday and still emptied the bench. If the Bears go up 25, the second half turns into walk-ons and a running clock.
And look at the schedule. No. 10 Houston is waiting for Cal on Sunday at Lake Tahoe. Once this one is decided, Madsen has every reason to rest his regulars.
How the Over cashes anyway
Radford’s fouling is the big threat. If the Highlanders send Cal to the line 35 times like they did San Francisco, free throws can push this total past the number in a hurry. Cal’s guards are also legitimately dangerous shooters, and a 12-of-20 night from three could put the Bears in the 90s on their own. Center Lee Dort, Cal’s only returning starter, missed the opener with a sprained ankle and is listed as day-to-day. One more thing: these ratings still lean on last season’s data and one game apiece, so my confidence has limits.
Projected score: California 82, Radford 66
Cal should win comfortably, but 15.5 is about where I have it, so I’m passing on the side. The edge is on the total. Cal’s real opponents start Sunday. Radford’s offense is still under construction.
The Pick: Under 156.5 (-110)
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