Northern Kentucky at South Dakota
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Sanford Coyote Sports Center
Northern Kentucky is a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 161.5, and my play is South Dakota +2.5.
Northern Kentucky has been living out of a Sioux Falls hotel since the weekend. Some of the Norse got stuck in an elevator before the opener. Then they went out and beat UTEP 84-76 on Monday. Now they bus across the state to Vermillion, and on Friday they head to College Station to play Texas A&M. That’s three games in five days, in two states, with no home cooking. The market looked at Monday’s win and pushed this line from NKU -1.5 to -2.5. I’m going the other way.
Monday’s win was real, and it was also a little lucky
Give the Norse their due. Freshman Willie Foster put up 24 points and 10 rebounds in his first college game, and Darrin Horn told LINK nky, “I’ve been at this 30 years, it might be the best freshman debut I’ve ever been a part of.” Transfer big man Noah Pagotto added 19 and 12. That’s a real one-two punch.
Now look at how they got there. NKU went 4-of-21 from three and still won because it hit 30 of its 33 free throws, including its first 20 in a row. You can’t plan on 91% at the line, especially in a gym where the other team lives there. And Ethan Elliott, the only returning starter and last year’s steady hand at the point, sat out with a hamstring injury. That left Foster and Eric Acker to play 73 of a possible 80 backcourt minutes. Those legs get one day off before facing a team that loves to run.
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The Coyotes are brand new, but their building isn’t
South Dakota is basically a new team. It brings back only 14.1% of last year’s scoring and added 12 newcomers, so nobody knows who these Coyotes are yet. They were picked fifth in the Summit League. What we do know is what the Sanford Coyote Sports Center does for Eric Peterson’s teams: 29-7 there over the past two seasons. This is the second game of a four-game homestand to open the year, so the Coyotes are sleeping in their own beds while NKU racks up bus miles.
The roster fits how Peterson wants to play. He’s got real size now with two 6-foot-10 transfers, Stef van Bussel and Josh Townley-Thomas, plus shooters in Jahni Summers (42% from three at Sacramento State last year) and Melo Sanchez. They get to the foul line, too. Last year’s group ranked fourth in the country in free-throw rate, and Monday’s version went to the line 41 times. NKU’s 30 free throws against UTEP may get matched at the other end.
The ratings make this close to a coin flip. Bart Torvik’s numbers, which still lean mostly on preseason expectations this early, have NKU ahead overall (213th to South Dakota’s 280th), but by less than this spread once you count the home floor. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Norse only a 52.6% chance to win. A 2.5-point road favorite should win more often than that.
The case against the Coyotes
The defense is the scary part. South Dakota allowed 81.7 points a game last season, and Torvik ranks its defense 310th for now. If Foster is the real deal and Elliott comes back, NKU has the guards to pick apart a team that’s still learning to play together. Monday’s 38-point win came against Mount Marty, so it doesn’t tell us much. And NKU’s frontcourt held up fine against a UTEP team with three 6-foot-10 players. This one could easily come down to a single possession, which is exactly why I want the points.
The number matters here. I’d play South Dakota at +2 or better, and the plus-money moneyline is a fine way to go if you’d rather skip the spread.
Projected score: South Dakota 80, Northern Kentucky 78
The Pick: South Dakota +2.5 (-110)
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