North Dakota State at Saint Mary’s
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
10:00 PM ET, University Credit Union Pavilion
Saint Mary’s is a 13.5-point favorite over North Dakota State with the total at 148.5. My play is North Dakota State +13.5.
Two nights ago, Saint Mary’s was down 10 at home with 12 and a half minutes to play against Illinois State. The Gaels clawed back, forced overtime on a Thomas Ndong putback with 20 seconds left, and won 90-85. But the market watched a team that needed an extra five minutes to beat a Missouri Valley opponent by five and decided the next guy up should be a two-touchdown underdog. I’m not buying that number.
A new coach, a new roster, and the same old price tag
This is year one of the Mickey McConnell era in Moraga. The former Gaels star and longtime assistant took over after Randy Bennett’s departure, and he’s working with six returners and 10 newcomers. Joshua Dent is the engine, a preseason All-WCC point guard who shot 40.4% from three last season. Monday showed the identity: the Gaels pounded the paint for 54 points, grabbed 16 offensive rebounds and got 18 points off the bench from Ndong.
It also showed the cracks. Saint Mary’s made just 4 of 17 threes, and Illinois State hit 13 of 27 from deep while Johnny Kinziger dropped 30. A team that was famous for strangling opponents under Bennett gave up 85, overtime included, in its first game under the new boss. One game isn’t a trend, but it’s a reminder that this isn’t last year’s 27-6 group, even if the line is priced like it is.
The ratings back that up. KenPom had Saint Mary’s 80th and North Dakota State 175th as of Tuesday. That’s a real gap, and the Gaels deserve a healthy chunk of points at home. But when I run that gap with home court baked in, I land closer to 10 than 13.5. The extra points are a tax on the Saint Mary’s brand.
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The Bison flipped the roster, not the standard
North Dakota State won a school-record 27 games last season, swept the Summit League titles and reached the NCAA Tournament. Then most of the team walked out the door. The Bison brought back just 23% of last season’s minutes and added 13 newcomers. David Richman isn’t treating it like a rebuild. “We’re coming off an historic year, our expectations haven’t changed from last year,” he told InForum in October, and the league’s coaches and media agreed, picking NDSU first in the Summit.
The one returning starter is the right one to keep. Andy Stefonowicz led the Summit in assists last season and opened this year with 18 points and seven assists against Minnesota Crookston. Around him, Richman added real Division I scorers. Rob Diaz III piled up 1,036 career points at Cal Poly Humboldt and Long Beach State. Melvin Bell Jr. came over from San Jose State and scored 16 in the opener. That 90-59 win came against a Division II team, so the score means little. What matters is that this group has guards who can handle pressure and make shots, which is how double-digit dogs stay inside the number.
Why I could be wrong
Size is the problem. Saint Mary’s runs out a 7-footer in Jazz Gardner plus Ndong at 6-10 and Vangelis Zougris at 6-8, who went a perfect 7 for 7 on Monday. The tallest NDSU starter is Andrew Nagy, a 6-9 transfer from Division II Point Loma. If the Gaels win the glass the way they did against Illinois State, second-chance points could push this past 14 by themselves.
There’s also the setting. Saint Mary’s has won 27 straight at home and went 17-0 in Moraga last season. North Dakota State is playing its first road game with a roster full of new faces, the opener of a three-game California swing. If the Bison come out rattled, this one can get away early. Neither team has an injury report out yet, so check lineups before tip.
Still, I’ll take a veteran point guard, a 13.5-point cushion and a Saint Mary’s team that’s still figuring out who it is. The Gaels should win. Covering a two-touchdown number is a different job.
Projected score: Saint Mary’s 77, North Dakota State 67
The Pick: North Dakota State +13.5 (-105)
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