Illinois at Texas Tech
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
8:00 PM ET, United Supermarkets Arena
No. 3 Illinois is a 2.5-point road favorite at No. 16 Texas Tech with the total at 167.5 at most books. My play is Under 167.5.
Somebody saw Illinois hang 120 on Fairleigh Dickinson and 112 on Penn and decided Lubbock was about to host a track meet. This total was hanging around 160.5 earlier in the week and got shoved seven points higher, with the overwhelming majority of the money on the Over. I get the impulse. I just don’t think Texas Tech is going to agree to the terms.
Two buy games built this number
Illinois has been a wrecking ball, beating its first two opponents by an average of 58.5 points. Texas Tech has been far quieter: 76-42 over Jackson State and 76-58 over Bethune-Cookman. Those are both glorified scrimmages, and the market priced only one of them like it mattered.
The Red Raiders want nothing to do with a sprint. KenPom has their adjusted tempo around 315th nationally, while the Illini sit 41st. Illinois playing faster is the big change from last season. The Illini went from dead last in the country in fastbreak points to a team that wants to run on every miss. But the home team controls a lot of the tempo in a ranked November game, and Grant McCasland’s group has given up 50 points per game so far.
We also have a recent reference point. These teams met last November in Champaign, and the closing total was 168.5. The game landed at 158, Illinois 81-77, and that was with JT Toppin going nuclear for 35 points.
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Lubbock’s scoring is running on fumes
Toppin is out recovering from a torn ACL, and the rest of the veteran core is cold. Darrion Williams, a two-time All-Big 12 pick back from a year at NC State, has seven points through two games on 2-of-10 shooting. Donovan Atwell hit 45.8% from three last season but is 3-of-16 from deep so far. Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, a former Illini guard who led the Mountain West at 20.7 points per game at UNLV, dropped 25 on Bethune-Cookman. He has to carry a lot of this.
Illinois isn’t at full strength either. Preseason AP first-team All-American David Mirkovic is out after multiple surgeries, and Jake Davis is sidelined with a shoulder injury. Andrej Stojakovic (22.5 points per game) and freshman Quentin Coleman are hot, but this is a roster that still looks like it’s being put together. That’s not a recipe for 85 points apiece on the road.
What spoils the Under
Illinois is huge, the 10th-tallest team in the country by KenPom’s average height, while Texas Tech sits 303rd. The Illini are also plus-36.5 on the boards per game. If they turn this into a parade of putbacks and transition layups, the pace gets away from Tech in a hurry. Transfer forward Jamichael Stillwell is expected to make his Red Raiders debut, which helps the size problem but adds a new piece on day one. And if Atwell finds his stroke, a few quick threes could push this over by themselves.
How it shakes out
I expect Texas Tech to make Illinois work in the half court, Underwood’s group to grind out a road win, and the final to look a lot like last year’s 158-point game. Anything at 164 or higher still works for me.
Projected score: Illinois 81, Texas Tech 76
The Pick: Under 167.5 (-110)
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