Northern Arizona at Arizona
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
9:00 PM ET, McKale Center at ALKEME Arena
No. 12 Arizona is a 36.5-point favorite over Northern Arizona, with the total at 156.5 at most books. My play is a lean on Northern Arizona +36.5.
Want to know how big 36.5 is? Under Tommy Lloyd, Arizona is 77-7 at home and outscores visitors by 22.0 points per game. That’s one of the best home résumés in the country, and this spread asks the Wildcats to beat that average by more than 14 points. Full disclosure: this is a lean, not a hammer. Buy games like this rarely hand you a clean edge, so size it accordingly.
Arizona’s eyes may already be on Friday. The Wildcats split their first week, losing 84-75 to UCLA in Las Vegas before beating Cal Poly 104-84. Now comes the last tune-up before Auburn on Friday and UConn next Wednesday. Lloyd will want his young guys to get real minutes here, and freshmen like Cameron Holmes and Bryce James playing the second half is exactly how 30-point leads turn into 31-point wins instead of 40.
The jump shot hasn’t shown up yet. Arizona is 11-of-44 from three through two games, and Lloyd admitted the team is “trying to fight for our identity right now.” The Wildcats don’t need threes to win this game. Motiejus Krivas went for 30 against Cal Poly, and Arizona won the paint 56-26. But a team that can’t shoot from outside has a harder time pulling away fast enough to cover a spread like this.
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The Lumberjacks have a scorer. Northern Arizona is 0-2 and ranks around 296th on KenPom, so nobody is pretending this is a fair fight. Still, NAU led UNLV by 12 in the first half before losing 89-77, and sophomore guard Chris Komin has opened with 24 and 21 points. A guy who can get his own shot is what keeps a backdoor cover alive when the starters are sitting.
Here’s how this blows up in my face. NAU turned it over 18 times at UNLV and 16 at New Mexico, and those giveaways became 43 points combined. Coach Shane Burcar said his team “got sped up and didn’t run our sets.” Arizona had 14 steals against Cal Poly. If Ivan Kharchenkov, who leads KenPom’s early Player of the Year race at 27 points per game, gets loose in transition, this is a 45-point game. The Lumberjacks already lost by 29 at New Mexico, so a total wipeout is realistic. There’s also a wild card in Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey, who has a court hearing Tuesday that could clear him to play. One more good frontcourt body only adds to Arizona’s depth.
The bottom line. Arizona wins comfortably. It has taken 37 straight meetings in this series. I just think the Wildcats ease off once the outcome is settled and keep the Auburn game in mind. Lean only, and I wouldn’t touch it below +35.
Projected score: Arizona 91, Northern Arizona 60
The Pick: Northern Arizona +36.5
Big numbers like this one reward patience, so take the points with the Lumberjacks and bring some extra bankroll into Auburn weekend. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Northern Arizona +36.5 and the rest of your Week 2 college basketball picks.
