Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
9:30 PM ET, United Center (Chicago)
No. 15 Kansas is a 4.5-point favorite over No. 24 Kentucky at a neutral site, with the total at 155.5 at most books. My play is Under 155.5.
Kansas lost its engine on Monday. Melvin Council Jr., the guard CBS Sports’ Isaac Trotter called “one of the fastest guards in all of college basketball,” broke a bone in his foot in practice and will have surgery, with a return pegged around January. One day later, Bill Self has to rewire his rotation against the program that lost the Tyran Stokes recruiting war.
That’s the story everyone will tell tonight in Chicago. The betting story is about speed, and Kansas just lost a lot of it.
Self is going to go big, and big means slow
Without Council, the most likely answer is more size. Keanu Dawes or Christian Reeves slides in next to Stokes and Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Kansas leans on paint points, free throws and offensive rebounds. Trotter expects exactly that, writing that the injury likely means Self “will go big, sacrificing some of the pace for even more rebounding.”
That lineup doesn’t make many threes. It grinds. And this Kansas group has barely played together, with Kaufman-Renn a late roster addition and the full team practicing together for only about three weeks. New lineups and half-court sets tend to produce clunky offense in November, not track meets.
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The defense has been suffocating, small sample and all
Kansas has held Fordham and Middle Tennessee to 28.5% shooting from the floor, per the school’s game notes. Yes, those are mid-majors. But Bart Torvik’s ratings, which still lean heavily on preseason expectations, have the Jayhawks as a top-five defense in the country. Even before the injury, his model projected about 154 total points, already a shade under this number.
Kentucky wants to run and fire transition threes, and Mark Pope’s teams have struggled when forced into the half court. Kentucky is just 29-26 against high-major opponents under Pope. Self will spend the whole night walling off the break and making the Wildcats grind out possessions. Meanwhile, the side is a tug-of-war: most books sit at 4.5, and CBS Sports is already quoting Kentucky +5.5 in its pick. When nobody agrees on who wins, a game played at Kansas’ pace is the cleaner angle.
How this blows up on me
Milan Momcilovic. Trotter calls him the best shooter in the sport, and if Kentucky hits double-digit threes, 155 comes into play fast. Stokes is also a foul-drawing machine, and a parade to the line inflates totals in a hurry. This is a lean more than a hammer. Council’s injury makes the side a coin flip with a hook, and the total is where I see a sliver of value.
Projected score: Kansas 77, Kentucky 73
The Pick: Under 155.5 (-115)
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