Memphis at South Florida
Thursday, November 12, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Raymond James Stadium
Memphis is a 4-point road favorite with a total of 49.5 at most books, and my play is Memphis -4 (-110).
Brian Hartline didn’t sound like a coach who was happy with his offense on Saturday. “Everything is up for evaluation,” USF’s first-year coach said, a day after East Carolina kicked a 55-yard field goal as time expired to beat the Bulls 20-17. “The expectations of where we need to be are not there right now.”
Now the Bulls get Memphis on a short week, with SportsCenter set up outside the stadium and a national ESPN audience watching. Memphis has had 12 days to get ready. USF has had six.
One offense is humming, the other is stuck in the mud
Memphis can just flat-out move the ball. The Tigers average 514 yards a game, fifth in FBS, and 37.6 points. They’re not one-dimensional either: they rank in the top 15 nationally in both passing and rushing yards. Marcus Stokes has thrown 25 touchdowns against six picks and completes 69 percent of his passes, and Jaylin Carter has 929 rushing yards and 10 scores. Fourth Down Data has Memphis seventh in FBS on early downs, so the Tigers usually stay ahead of the chains instead of grinding through third-and-long.
USF is the opposite. The Bulls are 126th in passing yards and 123rd in total offense. Over their last three games they’ve been gaining even less per play than their season average. Starting QB Michael Van Buren Jr. missed the ECU game with an undisclosed injury. Luke Kromenhoek filled in, went a tidy 17 of 21, and still got sacked three times behind a line that kept breaking down. Thursday is Van Buren’s next chance to return, but nobody has confirmed he’s ready. Top back D.J. Crowther ran for 111 yards at ECU, got hurt on the tying drive, and Hartline offered no update.
This is where the game tilts. When USF falls behind schedule and has to throw, it ranks 101st in the country on those passing downs. Memphis’s defense ranks ninth in that exact spot. Get the Bulls into third-and-7 and they’re toast.
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What could go wrong
Plenty, and it lives on the USF sideline. The Bulls defense is the real deal. It allows 15.1 points a game, 10th in FBS, and the Bulls are plus-7 in turnover margin. Fourth Down Data rates USF’s red-zone defense the best in the country, and Memphis has been mediocre once it gets inside the 20. If the Tigers keep settling for field goals, a 4-point spread gets tight in a hurry.
Memphis’s run defense is also leaky. It gives up 187 rushing yards a game, which ranks 122nd. A healthy Crowther could keep USF on schedule and the Memphis offense on the bench. And the Bulls’ three losses have come by a combined 14 points, so this team doesn’t get blown out. It loses close games.
The market has noticed some of this. The Associated Press listed Memphis as a 6.5-point favorite at the open, and the line has dropped to 4 or 5 depending on where you look. I’ll happily take the cheaper number. USF’s defense can keep this ugly for a while. But I don’t trust its offense to score 24 against anybody right now, and Memphis gets there even on a mediocre night.
Projected score: Memphis 27, South Florida 20
The Pick: Memphis -4 (-110)
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