Massachusetts at Toledo
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Glass Bowl
Toledo is a 14.5-point favorite over UMass with a total of 52.5 at most books. My play is Under 52.5.
Sacramento State ran for eight yards against Toledo last Wednesday. Not per carry. For the whole game. That was the fewest rushing yards by a Rockets opponent since 2015, and it tells you most of what you need to know about this MACtion matchup.
The Rockets don’t need to win pretty, and they won’t try to
Toledo (7-2, 4-1 MAC) is sitting in a three-way tie for second in the conference with three games left, chasing unbeaten-in-league Ohio. The Rockets have a quarterback who can sling it. John Alan Richter has 2,304 yards with 18 touchdowns and just three picks. But when it got tight in Sacramento, they handed it off. CJ Miller ran for 135 yards, Autavius Ison added 101, and Richter threw for 60. Sixty. Toledo won 20-17 anyway.
That’s the formula I expect again. The Rockets average 4.8 yards a carry, per TeamRankings, and UMass has been leaking on the ground lately, allowing 5.1 yards per rush over its last three games. When a team can churn out first downs on the ground against a soft front, it does, and the clock runs the whole time.
The defense is the bigger story. Toledo allows 4.6 yards per play, 18th in the country, and just 3.2 yards per rush. Over the last three games that rushing number is a ridiculous 2.0. Andrew Zock has 9.5 sacks off the edge, and the Rockets piled up 12 tackles for loss in Sacramento.
The BEST 2026 Football Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
UMass has a pulse. It also has one way to move the ball.
Give Joe Harasymiak’s team credit. The Minutemen (5-4, 2-3) snapped a four-game skid with a 31-30 overtime win over Ball State, their fifth win of the season and the most since UMass moved up to FBS in 2011. One more and they’re bowl eligible. “I said the other day this is a turning point,” Harasymiak said afterward.
William “Pop” Watson III was the whole show, throwing for a career-high 302 yards on 17-of-25 passing and scoring the winner on a 13-yard run in overtime. But look at what’s around him. UMass is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry over its last three games, and running back Elijah Faulkner leads the team with 400 yards on the season. Against Ball State, T.Y. Harding coughed up two fumbles.
So UMass has to throw to score, against a pass rush that just posted five sacks. That’s a recipe for punts, not fireworks. The Minutemen lost 20-19 to Miami (Ohio) and 25-18 in overtime at Buffalo during their skid. Two of those four losses were rock fights decided by a single score.
Why I could be wrong
Six of Toledo’s nine games have gone over, and the Rockets did hang 45 on Western Michigan in a 45-38 shootout last month. Watson is capable of the explosive play. He hit Jabari Lewis for a 64-yarder against Ball State. A couple of busted coverages or a defensive score blows this up fast. A Toledo blowout could also come with a garbage-time touchdown from either side.
The number has already dipped from 53.5 at the open, and some books show 51.5, so shop for the best version of it. ESPN’s forecast has it around 49 degrees at kickoff, which won’t do any favors for a UMass offense that has to throw to score. I see Toledo controlling the clock and UMass stalling against that front.
Projected score: Toledo 30, UMass 16
The Pick: Under 52.5 (-115)
Lean on the Toledo defense and bring some extra bankroll into your Wednesday night. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Under 52.5 and the rest of your Week 11 college football picks.
