Marquette at Michigan
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
7:01 PM ET, Crisler Center
No. 20 Michigan is a 3.5-point favorite over Marquette with a total of 157.5 at most books. My play is Marquette +3.5.
Seven months ago Michigan was cutting down nets after a 37-3 season and a 69-63 title-game win over UConn. Tonight it takes the floor with a new coach, a new rotation and a jumper that has gone missing, trying to avoid its first two-game losing streak since the end of the 2024-25 regular season.
The banner hangs, but the roster moved on
Dusty May left for the Dallas Mavericks, and longtime assistant Mike Boynton Jr. got the chair. The shooters who carried last year’s team, Yaxel Lendeborg and Nimari Burnett, are gone too. Through two games the Wolverines are hitting 23% from three, and outside of Trey McKenney (7-of-15) the rest of the roster has seven makes combined, per Anonymous Eagle’s breakdown. Elliot Cadeau, a 38% shooter last year, opened 1-of-9.
McKenney is the real thing. He scored all 22 of his points after halftime in Friday’s 85-77 loss to UConn in Boston, and he leads the team at 19.5 a night. J.P. Estrella (17.0 points, 10.5 boards) is a load on the glass, but he fouled out of the opener in 21 minutes and picked up four more against UConn. Cincinnati transfer Moustapha Thiam piled up four fouls in 15 minutes in that game. If the bigs sit, Michigan’s best edge sits with them.
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Shaka Smart has built a wall in Milwaukee
Yes, the opponents were Mercyhurst and Detroit Mercy. Still, holding two teams to 37.5 points a game on 25.6% shooting, and 9-of-55 from deep, means something. Marquette is forcing 18.5 turnovers a game and dishing 24 assists against seven giveaways, with sophomore point guard Nigel James Jr. at 11 assists and one turnover.
The efficiency numbers say this is closer than the AP poll does. Barttorvik has Michigan 21st and Marquette 23rd, with the Golden Eagles grading out as the better defense (13th in adjusted defensive efficiency, Michigan 18th). Both teams like to push, so the pace should be quick. Run those ratings through a normal home-court bump and you get a game decided by a bucket or so, which is right where this number sits. Royce Parham (14.0 ppg), Joshua Clark and Sananda Fru give Marquette enough size to make Estrella work on both ends.
There’s a coaching subplot too. Smart and Boynton split eight games when they were Big 12 rivals at Texas and Oklahoma State, and four of those were decided by three points or fewer.
The case against the Golden Eagles
This is Marquette’s first road game and its first ranked opponent, and the team that finished 12-20 last season went 2-10 away from home. Its own shooting has been shaky (27% from three), and Marquette hasn’t won in Ann Arbor since 1954. If Michigan’s shooters warm up at home, and someone besides McKenney hits a few, the champs can win by six or seven and this ticket is dead.
Projected score and the bet
I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I’ll take the hook with the better defense against a team still figuring out who shoots for it. It’s a small edge, not a hammer.
Projected score: Michigan 78, Marquette 76
The Pick: Marquette +3.5
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