Robert Morris at No. 19 Arkansas
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Bud Walton Arena
Arkansas is a 31.5-point favorite with a total of 158.5 at most books, and my play is Under 158.5.
“If you don’t want to pass, guess what? I’ll make you pass.” That was John Calipari after Virginia hung a 91-72 beating on his young Razorbacks in Washington on Sunday, per allHOGS. Arkansas had one assist in the first half. One. Calipari said he had never coached a game like it, and he called the loss “a punch in the mouth.”
So the Hogs come home to Bud Walton Arena with something to fix, and Robert Morris is the team that gets to absorb the frustration. The question is not whether Arkansas wins. The question is how many points this game can actually produce.
The Colonials can’t buy a bucket
Robert Morris is 0-2 and has looked overmatched both times. It lost 86-49 at Nevada and 79-56 at UIC. That’s 52.5 points per game on 33% shooting and 26% from three, with 19.5 turnovers a night, per ESPN’s team stats. This is a program that went 22-11 last season, per the AP preview, but the version on the floor right now cannot score against anybody.
Barttorvik’s ratings, which still lean on preseason priors this early, rank the Robert Morris offense 255th nationally in adjusted efficiency. Arkansas’s defense sits 34th, and the Hogs are swatting 8.5 shots a game with Billy Richmond III and Maper Maker each blocking three against Virginia. Getting 60 here would be a good night for the Colonials.
The BEST 2026 Basketball Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Why 158.5 asks too much
For this to go over, Arkansas basically has to drop 95-plus and let Robert Morris find 60-plus. The Hogs did score 106 in the opener against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but that’s the floor of Division I. Against a real opponent, they were stuck in the mud. Jordan Smith Jr., the freshman star averaging 19.5 points, went 3-of-8 in the first half against Virginia and didn’t set anybody up.
Barttorvik has both teams playing at a normal pace, around 70 to 72 possessions a game. Plug the two teams’ efficiency numbers together and you land in the low 150s, not the high 150s. Calipari also said he trusts nine or 10 players, so if this gets out of hand early, expect a lot of bench minutes in the second half, which tends to take the edge off the scoring.
Where this goes wrong
Turnovers. Robert Morris coughing it up 20 times a game means Arkansas layups and dunks in transition, and that’s how buy games turn into 100-60 track meets. If the Hogs get hot from three at home and the Colonials hit a few garbage-time shots, the over sneaks home. I’ll also be honest: there’s no big edge on the side or total here, and this is a lean, not a hammer.
Projected score: Arkansas 89, Robert Morris 61
The Pick: Under 158.5
Bet on the Colonials’ cold shooting staying cold and bring some extra bankroll into Wednesday. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Under 158.5 and the rest of your college basketball picks.
