Tennessee Volunteers at Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, November 14, 2026
3:00 PM ET, Kyle Field
Tennessee is a 2.5-point road favorite at most books, and the total is 43.5. My play is Tennessee -2.5.
Kyle Field will be dressed in black on Saturday. It’s Operation Blackout, and A&M has won both previous Blackout games under Mike Elko. It’s a great atmosphere. The trouble is, the crowd can’t play offense, and this Aggies offense has been struggling for a month.
A&M keeps getting stuck
Texas A&M is 4-5 and 1-5 in the SEC, and the problem isn’t hard to find. The Aggies have scored 6, 20 and 9 points in their last three games against SEC teams, including last week’s 17-9 loss at South Carolina. Marcel Reed has eight touchdown passes and eight interceptions, and he’s completing 57% of his throws. A&M ranks 86th nationally in scoring and 108th in red zone offense.
The advanced numbers say the same thing. SI’s betting preview has A&M 84th in adjusted EPA per play, a measure of how many points each snap is worth once you account for the opponent. Elko didn’t sugarcoat it after the South Carolina loss either. He called it “not a performance that was good enough to our standard again.”
Now that offense faces a Tennessee defense that allows 15.1 points a game, 10th-fewest in the country, and ranks 12th in that same adjusted EPA measure. Points will be hard to come by.
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Bishop and the ground game are the whole plan, and it’s a good plan
Tennessee runs for 216 yards a game, 11th in the nation, and DeSean Bishop is the engine: 1,066 yards, 5.4 a carry and 13 touchdowns. He had 109 yards and two scores in last week’s 34-6 win over Kentucky. A&M’s run defense is decent but not special, allowing about 130 yards a game, 54th nationally. That’s not a defense set up to stop the one thing Tennessee does best.
The quarterback situation adds a wrinkle. Tennessee switched from freshman Faizon Brandon to George MacIntyre during the Auburn game, and Brandon still came in against Kentucky for a 29-yard run and a touchdown pass. Elko told KBTX he expects MacIntyre to start. Either way, A&M has to prepare for a pocket passer and a running quarterback in the same week.
Tennessee also takes care of the football. The Vols are plus-six in turnover margin, and in a game with a total this low, one extra possession goes a long way.
Where this goes sideways
A&M’s defense is legitimately good where it matters most. It’s allowing points on just 61.9% of opponents’ red zone trips, the best rate in the country, according to the school. Tennessee converts only 37.2% of its third downs, which ranks 94th. If Tennessee’s drives keep ending in field goals, the Aggies hang around, and David Olano (16-for-17 on field goals) can steal one late. A&M also controls the ball for more than 32 minutes a game, which can keep Bishop on the sideline longer than Tennessee would like.
Still, I trust the team that can run the ball and stop the other team over the one that has to settle for field goals. Tennessee is good at -2.5 and still playable at -3.
Projected score: Tennessee 24, Texas A&M 16
The Pick: Tennessee -2.5
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