Alabama at Vanderbilt
Saturday, November 14, 2026
12:45 PM ET, FirstBank Stadium
Alabama is a 15.5-point favorite at Vanderbilt with a total of 50.5 at most books. My play is Alabama -15.5.
This number opened at Alabama -19.5. Four points vanished for one reason: Keelon Russell’s ankle. That’s the whole handicap in a sentence, and I think the market overcorrected.
The ankle, the backup and the overreaction
Russell got hurt early in the second half at LSU, walked to the medical tent, came back taped and led Alabama to the last 21 points of a 31-13 win. He finished 17-of-24 for 206 yards and three touchdowns. Kalen DeBoer called him day to day on Monday and didn’t rule him in or out. “We’ve got a lot of confidence if we had to move to Austin (Mack) at some point,” DeBoer said, per AL.com via The Crimson Sideline. Mack is a senior in his fourth year in this system, not a walk-on thrown to the wolves.
Russell has been terrific: 2,263 yards, 18 touchdowns and five picks. Losing him would hurt. But a four-point drop prices in a big chunk of that risk before anyone knows whether he’s even sitting, and Alabama’s edge in this game is broader than one player. The Tide’s other news is good too. DeBoer said he expects captain Zabien Brown back at cornerback. Tight end Josh Ford is out for the year, and left guard Will Sanders is still working back from ankle surgery.
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Vanderbilt keeps handing people the ball
The Commodores snapped a five-game losing streak last week with a 25-23 win at Mississippi State, and they did it with Brock Taylor’s leg. He kicked five field goals. Jared Curtis threw for 168 yards and no touchdowns. That’s how Vandy is winning right now: grinding, kicking and hoping.
The problem is the giveaways. Vanderbilt is minus-8 in turnover margin, 132nd in FBS, while Alabama is plus-9, eighth in the country. Curtis has eight touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season. The Commodores rank 111th in total offense and 123rd in rushing, so they can’t lean on the ground game to protect a young quarterback against a Tide defense that ranks 22nd against the run. When you can’t run and you turn it over, a 16-point spread doesn’t look scary.
Alabama’s offense, meanwhile, scores 37.4 points a game, 16th nationally, and Vandy’s defense gives up 29.4. Even with Mack, DeBoer and coordinator Ryan Grubb have enough weapons to lean on Rico Scott and the run game.
DeBoer also made sure his team remembers 2024. He brought up Alabama’s 40-35 loss in Nashville in the locker room after the LSU win, according to 247Sports. Most of this roster wasn’t there for it. The coach was, and he isn’t letting it go.
The case against laying it
Alabama’s red-zone defense is a real weakness: opponents have scored on 90.3% of trips, 115th in FBS. If Vandy keeps turning drives into Taylor field goals and the Tide stall with a backup quarterback, this stays in the 10-to-14 range. The pass defense also allows 239.9 yards a game, 111th nationally. And if Russell sits and Mack looks rusty early, a home crowd that has seen this upset before will get loud.
Projected score: Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 16
The Pick: Alabama -15.5
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