Boston College at Notre Dame
Saturday, November 14, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Notre Dame Stadium
Notre Dame is a 29.5-point favorite at most books with a total of 52.5, and my play is Boston College +29.5.
Last Saturday, Notre Dame beat the No. 1 team in the country. This Saturday, it hosts a 4-5 Boston College team nobody circled in August. Next Saturday, it gets ranked SMU under the lights. If you’ve watched college football long enough, you know exactly where this is going.
I’m not saying the Eagles win the Holy War. I’m saying 29.5 points is a mountain the Irish have to climb in the middle of the most dangerous week on their calendar.
The Miami hangover is real, and so is the injury report
The 31-24 win over Miami was the kind of night that defines a season. CJ Carr played his way to the front of the Heisman conversation, and Notre Dame sits No. 5 in the CFP rankings with a first-round bye in reach.
But that win came at a price. According to UHND, the Irish were without their top three cornerbacks, their best safety, two interior linemen and their captain linebacker at different points against Miami. Defensive coordinator Chris Ash held it together with aggressive man coverage and blitzes. That’s a fine plan for one big night. It’s harder to keep a beat-up defense locked in for 60 minutes against a team you’re expected to bury.
Notre Dame also doesn’t need style points here. With SMU next, the smart move is to get up big, pull the starters and get healthy. That’s how 31-7 turns into 38-14 with a garbage-time touchdown, and that’s a cover for the dog.
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BC has the one thing that keeps big dogs alive
Boston College is not good on offense. It scores 21.9 points a game, 15th in the ACC, and the Eagles managed just two points in a 47-2 loss at Duke two weeks ago. Nobody is pretending otherwise.
What Bill O’Brien’s team does well is take the ball away. The Eagles have 15 takeaways, including 12 interceptions, both the most in the ACC. They also allow just 187.3 passing yards a game, second-best in the league. Carr is not going to throw the ball to them often, since he has one interception all season and Notre Dame has only two giveaways total. But BC doesn’t need to win the turnover battle. It needs to shorten the game and make the Irish earn every scoring drive.
That’s where Mason McKenzie comes in. The BC quarterback has run for 676 yards, the most among ACC quarterbacks, and a running quarterback keeps the clock moving. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances for Notre Dame to stack touchdowns. The weather should help too, with a high in the low 40s and a chance of rain in the forecast.
BC also gave the Irish a real game a year ago, losing just 25-10 in Chestnut Hill.
The case against me
Notre Dame is excellent. The Irish score 39.3 points a game, allow 14.6 and give up only 87.1 rushing yards a game. They hung 58 on Stanford in October, so the ceiling for a blowout is there. McKenzie also has eight interceptions, and a couple of short fields could have this one out of reach by halftime.
I’ll also admit that the 11-game Irish winning streak in the series doesn’t scream upset. But I’m not betting on an upset. I’m betting on a letdown spot, a banged-up defense and a big number. The money is pointing the same direction too, with roughly 71% of spread dollars on the Eagles despite fewer than half the tickets.
Projected score: Notre Dame 38, Boston College 13
The Pick: Boston College +29.5
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