Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 15, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Lambeau Field
Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 41.5 at most books, and my play is Packers -3.5.
“In no way, shape or form was tonight acceptable.” That was Kevin O’Connell on Monday night, after Carson Wentz went 8 for 25 for 81 yards and two interceptions in a 23-6 home loss to Buffalo. Minnesota went 0 for 8 on third down. By Tuesday afternoon the Vikings had traded a 2027 third-round pick to Las Vegas for Kirk Cousins. That’s what desperation looks like at the deadline.
A reunion with a very short runway
Cousins is a sensible fix. He’s 38, he knows O’Connell’s system from 2022 and 2023, and he’s thrown 20 touchdowns against eight interceptions this year with a 97.1 rating. But he’s walking into a short week, after Monday night, with only a few practices to get back on the same page as Justin Jefferson and company. And it happens at Lambeau Field, where he tore his Achilles in 2023. Kyler Murray is dealing with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and isn’t expected to play. Wentz is the likely backup.
The Vikings’ offense has been sinking for a month: 16, 15 and 6 points in the last three games. Minnesota is 6-2 almost entirely because of a defense that allows 14.5 points a game. Andrew Van Ginkel has 7.5 sacks, and this unit blitzes from every angle.
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Jordan Love is playing out of his mind
The Packers have won five of six, and Sunday in Foxborough was the loudest one yet. Love threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns, ran for another, and Green Bay hung 45 on the Patriots. Christian Watson had 171 receiving yards, Matthew Golden had 164, and the defense forced four turnovers. Even the run game showed up with 129 yards, which matters for a team that came into that game last in the league on the ground.
There’s revenge in the air, too. Minnesota beat Green Bay 39-22 in the opener, scoring 29 straight points as Love’s late fumble and interception turned a Packers lead into a mess. Love threw for 387 yards that day against all that pressure. He’s shown he can beat this defense. He just needs to protect the ball.
Why I could be wrong
This Minnesota defense can win games by itself, and Love coughed it up twice against its pressure back in September. Cousins doesn’t need to be great, just mistake-free, and his familiarity with the playbook could produce a quick spark. Green Bay’s injury report isn’t clean either: linebacker Zaire Franklin is doubtful, and guard Sean Rhyan and tackle Travis Glover are both questionable. The market has also moved from -4.5 to -3.5, and a field goal decides plenty of NFC North games. Cousins’ trade was still pending a physical when announced, so keep an eye on the final QB news.
Projected score: Packers 24, Vikings 16
The Pick: Packers -3.5 (-105)
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