Denver at Carolina
Free Pick on the Total
There’s only a few hours left before kickoff so a short (and hopefully sweet once the final score is in) analysis today.
My numbers say this game has a 61% chance of staying Under. It qualifies for my T1 model, which has a record of 14-9 on Unders.
Denver has appeared in the spot twice and has a record of 1-1. The losing game was at Hm, the winner was when they were on the Rd – and they’re on the Rd this week.
The Bronco’s defense has helped keep the game Under the posted total in three of their four Rd games.
That stat is offset by Carolina’s 3-0 Ov/Un record at home, BUT…
two of those games came when they faced NFC North opponents Chicago and Detroit.
Why is this relevant?
The Lions are ranked third in the NFL for PPG, scoring 28.
Chicago is ranked eighth, scoring 27 per game.
Denver is ranked in 21st place, scoring just 21 PPG.
Denver is 3-5 Ov/Un, Carolina 3-4, so combined, the two teams are 6-9 Ov/Un, 60%.
When Carolina started the season 3-2 I thought they were playing over their head, especially Bryce Young. In those four games their offense averaged 29 PPG.
Since then, they’ve scored 19 and 13 points in their last two games, averaging just 16 PPG, a drop off of almost two TD’s.
Against Denver’s defense I think we’ll see the lower scoring version of Carolina.
The line opened at 45 and is now at 44′, with extra juice on the Over.
My play:
Den/Car Un 44′
