USC Trojans at Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, November 14, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
No. 9 Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite over No. 18 USC in the College Football Playoff rankings showdown, and the total sits at 50.5 at most books. My play is Under 50.5.
Here’s a question nobody in Bloomington can answer yet: who’s playing quarterback for Indiana? Curt Cignetti isn’t saying. “We’ll see how the week plays out, and we’ll see who we trot out there,” he said Monday. When the coach of an 8-1 team is that vague in mid-November, the offense has a problem, and I want to bet on that problem.
Indiana’s offense has gone from a sports car to a tractor. Josh Hoover threw 19 touchdowns against two interceptions through the first stretch of the season, but he took a big hit against Ohio State on Oct. 17 and hasn’t looked right since. Over his last three games he’s completed 46.8% of his passes, according to the Indiana Daily Student, and Cignetti pulled him for seventh-year senior Grant Wilson in the second half against Minnesota. Wilson saved that game with a late throw to set up the tying field goal and the overtime winner to Charlie Becker, but the Hoosiers still went 2-of-13 on third down that day.
The scoreboard tells you the rest. Indiana’s last four games finished 20-17, 19-15, 13-6 in overtime and 23-16 in overtime. The Hoosiers are averaging 6.6 yards per play on the season, but just 5.1 over their last three games, per TeamRankings. That’s not a team that’s about to drop 35 on a Gary Patterson defense coming off a bye.
The BEST 2026 Football Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
USC can’t run, and Indiana knows it
The Trojans are the more explosive offense. Jayden Maiava leads the Big Ten with 2,524 passing yards and 20 touchdowns at 8.5 yards per attempt, and freshmen Trent Mosley and Mark Bowman turned the Ohio State game into a highlight reel in a 30-18 upset on Halloween night. But there’s a catch: USC doesn’t run the ball well. The Trojans rank 108th in rushing yards per game and are averaging 2.8 yards per carry over their last three games.
That’s a bad trait to carry into Bloomington. Indiana is allowing 12.4 points and 75.6 rushing yards per game, both top five nationally, and opponents are averaging 2.5 yards per carry against this front, second-best in the country. When a team can’t run on you, you get to rush the passer, and the Hoosiers have 32 sacks already. Expect a lot of third-and-long for Maiava, and a USC red zone offense that ranks 95th in the nation is facing a defense that has allowed just seven touchdowns on 20 red-zone trips.
Why the clock should keep moving
Indiana wants to grind. Turbo Richard (745 yards) and Lee Beebe Jr. (715) give the Hoosiers a two-back rushing attack at 186 yards a game, and with an uncertain passer, Cignetti has every reason to lean on it. That means long drives, a running clock and fewer possessions for both teams. Indiana is also one of the least penalized teams in the country, so there aren’t many free yards to keep drives alive. USC’s defense is better than its reputation, too, after holding Ohio State without a touchdown until 2:12 remained.
What could go wrong
USC has real big-play juice. Mosley’s 69-yard touchdown on the second snap against Ohio State and Bowman’s 70-yard catch-and-run are exactly the kind of plays that wreck an under in a hurry. If Hoover is healthy and back to his September self, Indiana’s passing game with Becker (875 yards, nine scores) and Nick Marsh can hit chunks of its own. Overtime is the other enemy; Indiana has gone to OT twice in three games, and a few extra possessions can push a 41-point game past the number.
I’ll live with those risks. The best unit on the field is Indiana’s defense, the worst unit is USC’s run game, and the biggest question is Indiana’s quarterback. All three point the same direction.
Projected score: Indiana 24, USC 17
The Pick: Under 50.5 (-112)
Ride the Hoosier defense on Saturday afternoon and bring some extra bankroll into the weekend. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Under 50.5 and the rest of your Week 11 college football picks.
