Oregon State at UMBC
Tennessee Tech at Indiana
and Oklahoma St at Texas A&M
College Basketball Free Plays and Predictions
It’s another one of those Plethora of Plays days.
Here’s an analysis on three buys I made this morning and a couple stats from a few other games in case anyone’s looking at them.
From yesterday’s article:
“Today I’m going to do something a little different, a race against the inevitability of Reversion Toward the Mean.
FIVE games qualify today starting and I’m going to play a few of them to see if I can Bank a unit before the record starts to level out.
First up is the noon EST game, Loyola-Chi vs Air Force.
The line opened at 155′ and is currently at 159′, which means I’m breaking my rule of don’t buy any game that the line moved three or more points against you.
I’m in the same mess with the next play, Charleston at Temple.
Opened 153′, now at 158.
So that’s two plays that break one of my Cardinal rules. But hey, where’s the fun in life if you can’t break a few rules now and then…
My plays:
Loyola-Chi/AF Ov 159′
Charles/Temp Ov 158″
From yesterday’s Forum post:
First score is in, Loyola/AF Ov 159′.
Final score, 107-93.
Two hundred points.
Over by a whopping 40′ points!
NEXT!!!
On deck, Charles/Temp, Ov 158′ at 6:30 EST.
Update: Temple game lands on 172.
Another double digit win for the Fade.
Here’s where I’m at.
I could shut it down and have a profitable 2-0 day, or worst case, 1-1, no damage done.
Or I could keep playing.
There are two games left that qualify.
I wish the tip-off times were staggered so I can play them one by one. It would be ideal to see the results of some more early games before I have to make decisions on the last games.
But unfortunately the next two are 7:00 p.m. tip-offs.
Here are the games:
W&M/Fla Atl
Marq/Mich
I decided not to take a hit, and stood on my two posted plays.
It was the correct move.
From the original five games that qualified in the morning, line changes removed Drexel as a play.
I didn’t like the Michigan game because they were already in the spot once this season and the game stayed under, a loss for the Fade.
Good move, the Michigan game State under again and it would have been a loss had I played it.
Florida Atlantic went Over, a winner for the Fade.
So on e plays that qualified the record was 3-1.
Had I played the two afternoon spots I would have lost juice at 1-1, instead I banked two full units.
Today I’m continuing my race against time, my battle with Reversion Toward the Mean, looking to bank a few more off this model before it starts to level out.
I have four Unders that qualify.
After yesterday’s games the record on this model is 10-22, a 68% Fade.
I also have one game that qualifies for an Over.
The record for overs in this model is 1-3. A small data sample but a 75% Fade.
Morgan State at UMBC
First up, a 6:00 p.m. EST start, Morgan State at UMBC. The line opened at 161′ and already has been bet up to 164′. This means I have to break one of my Cardinal rules – Don’t bet any game where the line has moved more than three points against you.
But I did it in BOTH of yesterday’s games and escaped unscathed. So . . .
Tennessee Tech at Indiana
Next up, Tennessee Tech at Indiana.
The line opened at 165 and has already been bet up to 169′.
Breaking that rule again, but I’m sticking with what works until it doesn’t.
Oklahoma St at Texas A&M
Next up is Ok State at Texas A&M.
Texas A&M is the only team in all of today’s games that has qualified for this spot before.
On November 3rd this model said the Texas A&M game would stay under 162.
It landed on 163, sneaking by with a 1 point W for the Fade.
The line on tonight’s game opened at 174 and has been bet up to 178.
Loyola Marymount at South Alabama (No Play)
The last game is Loyola Marymount at South Alabama. This is the only game where the line has moved in my favor.
It opened at 146 and has been bet down to 141′.
The line move means the game no longer qualifies, missing by a hook.
No play on this one.
Loyola Maryland at Towson (No Play)
The lone Over spot is a 7 pm EST game, Loyola Maryland at Towson. Fading the Over in the spot is 3-1, but the line has dropped from 137′ to 133.
I’ll ignore my rule about not betting when the line has moved three or more against me betting on Overs because it’s been working.
Not willing to risk it on a model that only has a four-game sample and none where the line has moved against me.
I could go into their records, check the numbers on Over/Unders for all teams in today’s games but it’s a waste of time, and basically irrelevant because each of the teams have only played four or five games so the numbers are meaningless (although I like the fact that the Tenn Tech/Indiana game has two teams that are a combined 5-0 to the Over.)
I’m not betting on standard stats.
I’m betting on my models.
And against Reversion Toward the Mean.
Today’s plays:
Ore State/UMBC Over 164′
Tenn Tech/Ind Over 169′
Ok St/Texas A&M Over 178
Recap: 2-0
Record: 4-2. The Grail. 67%.
(Yes it’s only a six game sample, but you don’t get to quote it too often so use it when you can!)
