Lindenwood Lions at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Wednesday, November 11, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Pinnacle Bank Arena
No. 25 Nebraska is a 34.5-point favorite at most books, and the total is 150.5. My play is Lindenwood +34.5.
Nobody is buying a ticket to Lincoln wondering who wins this one. The only question is how ugly Nebraska wants to make it, and 34.5 points asks for a lot.
The Huskers are legit, and that’s not the point. Nebraska went 28-7 last season and 16-2 at home, and it’s 2-0 so far. Barttorvik ranks the Huskers 14th in the country, with the 10th-best adjusted defense. Pryce Sandfort is averaging 22.5 points after scoring 25 in the 67-58 win over Providence. That’s a good team. The trouble for anyone laying the number is that good teams tend to play the starters 25 minutes in this kind of game and then clear the bench.
Lindenwood’s box score is fake, but its blowout loss is real. The Lions are scoring 98 a game, and you can ignore that. Two of their three games were against non-Division I teams, Central Bible and East West, and they won by 74 and 71. Their one real test was a 98-59 beating at TCU, and that’s the one to take seriously. Torvik has Lindenwood 286th nationally, with an offense ranked 312th in adjusted efficiency.
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Do the math and 34.5 looks like a stretch
Run the two teams’ Torvik efficiency numbers against each other, and Nebraska should score roughly 32 more points per 100 possessions than Lindenwood. Both teams play at around 70 to 74 possessions a game, so that works out to a margin in the mid-20s. Add a few points for home court and you’re still short of 30. The Huskers’ own track record backs that up: they beat Le Moyne by 42, then beat a real Providence team by nine.
My number on this game is about Nebraska by 27. With the line at 34.5, Lindenwood can lose by 30 and still cash.
The case against me
Buy games don’t follow the math every night. If Nebraska’s shooters get hot early and the bench keeps that energy going, the margin can get away from you. The Lions also just got beaten by 39 at TCU. That’s the real risk: they don’t need much to go wrong to look like that again. These ratings also still lean heavily on preseason expectations after only two or three games, so I’m keeping this to a modest-sized bet. I’d stop playing it below +31.
Projected score: Nebraska 89, Lindenwood 61
The Pick: Lindenwood +34.5
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