Northern Arizona at No. 24 Kentucky
Friday, November 13, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Rupp Arena
Kentucky is a 35.5-point favorite over Northern Arizona at most books, with the total at 155.5. My play is Northern Arizona +35.5.
Is there a more beaten-up team in the country right now than Northern Arizona? The Lumberjacks are 0-3, every game has been on the road, and tonight’s trip to Lexington is their fourth road game in 10 days. UNLV, New Mexico at The Pit, Arizona in Tucson, and now Rupp Arena. Somebody in the NAU athletic department owes these kids a nice dinner.
So why am I taking them? Because 35.5 points assumes Kentucky is a buzzsaw, and Kentucky hasn’t been one yet.
Mark Pope’s rebuilt roster is still a work in progress
The No. 24 Wildcats (2-1) got embarrassed by Kansas 89-69 in the Champions Classic on Tuesday in Chicago, trailing by as many as 23. They shot 4 of 21 from 3 and turned it over 16 times. Before that, James Madison went 18 lead changes deep at Rupp before Kentucky pulled away for a 9-point win. Kentucky’s one true blowout came against Manhattan, 85-57. That was a 28-point win over a team that rates 348th on Barttorvik. Northern Arizona sits around 312th. Not good, but better.
Zoom Diallo has been the bright spot. The transfer guard is averaging 17.3 points and went 10 of 15 for 24 against Kansas. Malachi Moreno is giving them a real presence inside at 9 rebounds a game. The worry is Iowa State transfer Milan Momcilovic, a shooter who has scored seven and five points in his last two games. When your shooters aren’t shooting, 35-point margins get a lot harder to reach.
Kentucky will come out angry after Tuesday, and Rupp will be loud. I get it. But angry teams still have to make shots, and once this one is out of hand, the starters sit and the margin stops growing.
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The Lumberjacks slow it down, and that’s their whole shot
NAU plays one of the slowest tempos in Division I. Fewer possessions means fewer chances for a talent gap to compound, and that’s the single biggest thing working for an underdog getting five touchdowns. Chris Komin can score, too. He’s averaging 20.7 points, and he had 24 against UNLV and 21 at New Mexico. The opener at UNLV was tied four times in the second half before the Rebels pulled away by 12.
A basic projection using both teams’ adjusted Barttorvik efficiency and tempo, with home court for Kentucky, lands somewhere in the low-to-mid 20s. Those early ratings still carry a lot of preseason weight, but even being generous to Kentucky, 35.5 is a stretch.
The case against me. NAU’s last two games got ugly. It lost by 29 at New Mexico and 31 at Arizona, where the Wildcats shot 62% and owned the paint 52-20. The Lumberjacks have also been careless with the ball, averaging almost 18 turnovers a game, and they pull down just 28 rebounds a night. Kentucky has a size edge, and if Moreno and the bigs feast inside like Arizona’s did, this gets to 40 in a hurry. Then there’s the fatigue. A fourth road game in 10 days could leave NAU’s legs in the locker room by halftime.
Still, the closest comparison on Kentucky’s schedule is a 28-point win over a worse team. I’ll take the cushion.
Projected score: Kentucky 87, Northern Arizona 58
The Pick: Northern Arizona +35.5
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