Central Arkansas at Arkansas
Friday, November 13, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Bud Walton Arena
No. 19 Arkansas is a 25.5-point favorite at most books, with the total sitting at 160.5 (a few have it at 159.5 or 161). My play is Under 160.5.
Twenty threes. That’s how many Central Arkansas made on Tuesday, a school record. It’s also why this total is sitting in the 160s. The problem is that they made them against Ecclesia College, which plays in the National Christian College Athletic Association, not Division I. Next to a 127-54 box score, everything looks like a shootout. I’m not buying that the Bears bring that offense to Fayetteville.
Look at what happened when UCA stepped up in class. At Ole Miss on Nov. 7, the Bears scored 60 and lost by 32. That 152-point game was nowhere near this number. Their D-I opener, an 85-55 win over Oral Roberts, ended up at 140. John Shulman’s team is good. League coaches picked it to win the United Athletic Conference, and guard Ty Robinson and Utah State transfer Tucker Anderson are preseason all-league picks. But getting those shots off against an SEC defense is a very different job than Tuesday night was.
Calipari wants defense, not fireworks
Arkansas just came out of a humbling 91-72 loss to No. 6 Virginia with a defensive tone. The Hogs held Robert Morris to 53 in a 76-53 win on Wednesday, outrebounded the Colonials 45-21, and moved the ball for 25 assists on 31 field goals. John Calipari still wasn’t satisfied: “It ain’t about scoring,” he said. “It’s about playing winning basketball. We have a long way to go, folks.”
The school notes add that Arkansas is 7-0 under Calipari when it holds opponents under 60. Barttorvik has the Hogs’ adjusted defense around 31st in the country. Furman transfer Cooper Bowser has pulled down at least seven rebounds in every game. That matters against a team that wants to make it a jump-shooting contest. Long rebounds off missed threes become one-shot possessions, not second-chance chaos.
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There’s history here too. When these teams met last November, Arkansas won 93-56 and held UCA to 0 for 18 from three in the second half, per the Razorbacks’ game notes. That’s 149 total points, and it came with the Hogs scoring 93.
Both teams play at about an average pace by Barttorvik’s measure. Plug in the two teams’ adjusted efficiencies and tempo, and you get a game in the low 150s. That’s a cushion of about seven points against the market.
Where the under can get burned
Arkansas can fill it up. It hung 106 on Arkansas-Pine Bluff to open the season, and Jeremiah Wilkinson has scored in double figures in all three games. If the Bears get hot from three early, Calipari’s young guards may want to trade baskets. A late flurry of walk-on free throws in a blowout can also nudge a total over, and there’s a lookahead factor: Arkansas plays Indiana in New York on Tuesday, so the defensive focus could slip once the game is out of reach.
I’ll trust the class gap on the glass and a coach who just told his team scoring isn’t the point.
Projected score: Arkansas 85, Central Arkansas 63
The Pick: Under 160.5
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