Ohio State Buckeyes at UConn Huskies
Friday, November 13, 2026
7:30 PM ET, PeoplesBank Arena
UConn is an 11.5-point favorite at most books, and the total is 147.5. My play is Ohio State +11.5.
Here’s the strange part. No. 4 UConn lost a starter on Monday, and the line went up. This game opened around UConn -8.5. Since then, Duke transfer Nik Khamenia went down after seven minutes against Wagner with a lower-leg injury, and he’s expected to miss this one. The market has still pushed the Huskies to -11.5. I understand why people want to back Dan Hurley in a big Friday-night game in Hartford. I don’t understand paying three extra points for it.
UConn’s defense is real. The Huskies are allowing 54.7 points a game and 34.2% shooting, and Barttorvik rates them a top-five defense in the country. They forced 26 turnovers against Wagner. But look at the schedule. Two of their three wins came against low-majors, and the third was an 85-77 win over Michigan. That’s the result that tells you what this team looks like against a real opponent: an eight-point game.
This Ohio State team can score on anybody
The Buckeyes are 2-1, but they’re better than their record. UConn’s own game notes point out that Ohio State is a top-30 team in both Torvik’s and Haslam’s ratings. Barttorvik ranks the Buckeye offense just outside the top 20 in efficiency. John Mobley Jr. is a legitimate lead guard averaging 19.3 points and 5.0 assists. Sophomore Amare Bynum is scoring 15 a game, shooting 65% inside the arc and 38% from deep, and he’s the player who benefits most from Khamenia’s absence. Without Khamenia, UConn is likely to start freshman Colben Landrew, who’s talented but picked up four fouls in 23 minutes against Michigan.
Even Hurley admitted the injury changes the math. “Our margin for error would be thinner,” he said this week, before adding, “but it’s not like we’ve got scrubs.”
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When I run the two teams’ Barttorvik efficiency and tempo through a simple projection with home court built in, I get UConn by about seven or eight. UConn plays at a deliberate pace, around 68 possessions a game, and slower games make double-digit spreads harder to cover. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances for the better team to pull away.
Why I could be wrong
Ohio State’s problem has been playing a full 40 minutes. The Buckeyes gave up 94 points to BYU in their opener and let Marshall cut a 19-point lead to five on Monday. They’re shooting just 28% from three, and with nine newcomers on the roster, Jake Diebler is still figuring out who he trusts. “We’ve got to continually fight to sustain the level of excellence that we show at times,” Diebler said. Diebler has also struggled on the road against ranked teams, and this is Ohio State’s first true road game of the season, in front of a stripe-out crowd. If Braylon Mullins (17.7 points a game) and Silas Demary Jr. get going early, this can snowball.
Still, getting nearly 12 points with a top-30 team against an opponent missing a starter is a price I’ll take. UConn wins, and the Buckeyes stay within the number.
Projected score: UConn 76, Ohio State 68
The Pick: Ohio State +11.5 (-110)
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