Arizona Wildcats at Auburn Tigers
Friday, November 13, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Neville Arena
No. 12 Arizona is roughly a 3-point road favorite at most books, and the total is 159.5. My play is the Under 159.5.
Auburn hasn’t lost a nonconference game at home in 10 years. That’s 69 straight wins in the Jungle, the longest such streak in the country. Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats are 37-17 in true road games over his tenure, and they’ve won a lot of big ones. Something has to give tonight. The market has already decided which team it likes. This game opened with Auburn as a small favorite and has flipped to Arizona laying about three.
I don’t have a strong opinion on the side. When I project it from Barttorvik’s efficiency and tempo numbers, I get Arizona by about three and a half, which is right on the number. Where I do see value is the total, which has crept up from its opening number of 157.5.
Two big front lines, one crowded paint
Arizona’s offense runs through two international stars. Ivan Kharchenkov, a 6-7 forward who can play anywhere, is averaging 24.7 points and 9 rebounds after dropping 38 on UCLA in the opener. Motiejus Krivas, a 7-2 center, is shooting 73.1% from the field. Steven Pearl called Kharchenkov “a matchup nightmare,” and he’s right. But Arizona is making just 28% of its threes, so its points come at the rim. That runs straight into the strength of Auburn’s defense. The Tigers block 8.5 shots a game and have held both opponents under 60 points. Pearl credited “having size at the rim to contest shots” as the difference.
Go the other way and it’s the same story. Auburn’s offense is built around Tahaad Pettiford, who leads the SEC at 22.0 points a game. Barttorvik rates Arizona’s defense as a top-10 unit in the country, so Pettiford is going to have to work for everything.
The BEST 2026 Basketball Bonus: Deposit $100 to $1000 and get a 75% real cash bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin at Bovada Sportsbook!
Big games tighten up
This is a revenge game. Arizona blew out Auburn 97-68 last December in Tucson, and Pettiford scored a career-high 30 in that loss. The Jungle will be packed, and every possession will be contested. Big early-season games with two good defenses tend to slow down in the half court once the opening adrenaline wears off. Auburn is also leaning on its bench, which is putting up 35 points a game. Bench minutes against a top-15 opponent usually mean more empty trips, not fewer.
My projection lands around 156 or 157, a few points below the current number. That’s not a huge cushion, but it’s on the right side of a total that has already moved up two points.
What could go wrong
Arizona plays fast. Barttorvik has it among the quicker teams in the country, and under Tommy Lloyd the Wildcats have averaged 81 points a game in true road games. Kharchenkov and Krivas have each already scored 30 in a game this season. Auburn is shooting 40% from three, and if Pettiford gets hot early, this turns into a track meet in a hurry. Early-season ratings still lean on preseason projections, too. I’d stop playing the Under if the total drops to 157.
Projected score: Arizona 79, Auburn 76
The Pick: Under 159.5 (-110)
Expect a physical, grind-it-out night on the Plains, and bring some extra bankroll into the weekend. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet the Under in Auburn and the rest of your college basketball picks.
