Seton Hall at No. 18 Alabama
Friday, November 13, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Coleman Coliseum
Alabama is a 17.5-point favorite at most books with a total of 156.5. My play is Seton Hall +17.5.
This line is about Monday night. Alabama dropped 24 threes on Oakland, the market saw it, and the spread kept climbing. But Seton Hall isn’t Oakland, and the most important Alabama big man may not even be in uniform.
The Tide offense is the real deal. Nate Oats’ team is averaging 102 points, ranks fifth in KenPom’s adjusted offense, and plays one of the fastest tempos in the country. It went 24 of 46 from three in a 109-68 win over Oakland, one make shy of the school record. London Jemison didn’t miss: 7 of 7 from the floor, six from deep, 20 points. Aden Holloway also returned from a suspension and hit four threes.
Shaheen Holloway’s team doesn’t give you second chances
Seton Hall is the first power-conference opponent either team has seen this year, and the Pirates bring what Shaheen Holloway has built since 2022: defense. They have allowed 54.7 points a game, top 15 in the country, and Barttorvik rates them a top-25 defense after adjusting for opponents. They also finish possessions. Per KenPom, opponents grab offensive rebounds on only 22.1% of their misses against Seton Hall, 21st nationally. One shot and done is how you keep an elite offense from running away from you.
Seton Hall also controls the tempo. The Pirates play in the high 60s in possessions, far slower than Alabama wants. Every possession the Pirates take off the clock is one less chance for Alabama to build its lead.
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Alabama’s glass problem is about to get worse
Here’s the part the line is ignoring. Alabama ranks 297th in the country in offensive rebound rate allowed, giving up a board on 37.7% of opponent misses. Oakland outrebounded the Tide 37-31 on Monday. The 6-foot-10 Mississippi State transfer Jamarion Davis-Fleming sat that game with a lower leg injury, hasn’t practiced this week and is questionable. Oats didn’t sound optimistic. “He’s one of our best rebounders,” he said. “He’s physical. He’s tough.”
To be fair, Seton Hall isn’t a big offensive rebounding team, so the Pirates may not feast on those misses. The bigger issue is the other end. Without Davis-Fleming, Alabama loses one of its best bodies for crashing the glass, and it runs into a defense that ends possessions after one shot. If the threes stop falling, there won’t be many putbacks to fall back on. A team that hits 24 of 46 one night doesn’t do it every night.
The numbers make the case for the points. KenPom projects about a 13-point Alabama win. Run the Torvik adjusted efficiency numbers and it comes out in single digits. The market is at 17.5. I’d take Seton Hall down to +14.
The case for the Tide
Seton Hall can’t really score. It ranks outside the top 100 in adjusted offense and scraped past Charlotte 68-62 on a neutral floor Monday, with both offenses sputtering late. If the Pirates go cold for six minutes, Alabama’s pace can turn a 10-point lead into 25 in a hurry. Coleman Coliseum will be loud, and Alabama has three-point shooters all over the floor. If Davis-Fleming plays, Alabama’s rebounding gets a lot better.
But my bet is a defensive grinder, not a track meet, that keeps Alabama to one shot. Seventeen and a half is too many.
Projected score: Alabama 84, Seton Hall 72
The Pick: Seton Hall +17.5 (-115)
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