LSU at Gonzaga
Saturday, November 14, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Numerica Veterans Arena
No. 14 Gonzaga is a 5.5-point favorite over LSU at most books with the total at 161.5, and my play is Gonzaga -5.5.
“I think I was the only one dumb enough to go up there and play them,” Will Wade said this week. “They tried to get everyone else, and we were the only ones dumb enough to sign up for it.” Coach, I think you’re underselling how dumb it might be.
LSU has beaten three teams. It hasn’t played one. The Tigers are 3-0, winning by 40-plus every time against LSU New Orleans, Texas Southern and Louisiana Tech, all at home. None of those opponents ranks better than 263rd in KenPom’s offensive ratings. Saturday is their first road trip, 2,300 miles to a building that will be packed with Zags fans.
The talent is real, though. Wade rebuilt the entire roster, with no player back from last year’s 15-17 team, and Mark Few called it “maybe the second most talented roster in college basketball.” Former UCLA guard Donovan Dent runs everything at 13.7 points, 8.3 assists and 3.3 steals a game. Seven-foot Croatian freshman Michael Ruzic is scoring 15.7 a night off the bench on 77.8% shooting, and LSU ranks top five in the country in points in the paint.
The jumper is the hole. LSU is shooting 27% from three as a team, and Skyy Clark is 1-of-16. You can live in the paint against Texas Southern. Against a Gonzaga frontcourt of Braden Huff, 7-1 Massamba Diop plus Izan Almansa and Chauncey Wiggins, the lane gets crowded fast. If LSU can’t make teams pay from outside, Gonzaga can sit in the paint all afternoon.
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Gonzaga just got deeper on game day. Wiggins, the 6-10 Florida State transfer who averaged 13.3 points and shot about 39% from deep last year, was granted eligibility Thursday and is expected to debut. Almansa is also expected back from a foot injury. Few has been running an eight-man rotation. Now he can go nine or ten deep against a team that has leaned on eight guys for nearly all of its minutes.
The Zags already have a scorer in sophomore Davis Fogle, who’s averaging 22 points and dropped 22 on Purdue in Las Vegas. Huff is at 15 a game. Bart Torvik’s ratings have Gonzaga’s offense second in the country and LSU’s 41st, and my rough projection from those numbers lands at Gonzaga by about seven before you account for Wiggins. That’s the edge: the rating already likes the Zags by more than the number, and the rating doesn’t know about the new 6-10 shooter.
And it’s Spokane Arena. This is Gonzaga’s big-event building off campus, and the Zags have won seven straight there, including a 38-point beatdown of Baylor and a 16-point win over Oklahoma.
Where this goes sideways. Gonzaga is shooting 47.5% from three through two games, and nobody stays that hot. The market also moved against me. This opened at 6.5 and slipped to 5.5, with a spot or two at 4.5, even though most tickets are on Gonzaga, so somebody with money likes LSU. If Dent pushes the pace and LSU’s bigs win the glass, this is a one-possession game in the final minutes. I still trust the home team with the deeper bench and the better shooters.
Projected score: Gonzaga 84, LSU 76
The Pick: Gonzaga -5.5 (-110)
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