Stonehill at Texas Tech
Saturday, November 14, 2026
2:00 PM ET, United Supermarkets Arena
No. 16 Texas Tech is a 40.5-point favorite over Stonehill at most books with a total of 142.5, and my play is Stonehill +40.5.
Four days ago the Red Raiders were bouncing around the court after the highest-ranked nonconference home win in program history. Now they get a Northeast Conference team whose trip to Lubbock got tangled up in Friday’s nationwide FAA ground stop. The tip was even pushed to 1 p.m. Central because of Stonehill’s travel issues. Everything about this setup screams blowout. The question is whether Tech is built to win by six touchdowns, and I don’t think it is.
The hangover after the haymaker
Tech jumped No. 3 Illinois for a 49-29 halftime lead on Tuesday, then spent the second half hanging on as the Illini poured in 49 points of their own before Tech closed out an 84-78 win. Cruz Davis, last season’s CAA Player of the Year at Hofstra, scored 20 and has been the steady hand all season at 16.7 points, 4.7 assists and 3.3 steals per game. UCF transfer Jamichael Stillwell gave them 11 points and 13 boards in his debut.
“This place will not let us lose,” Grant McCasland said afterward, and he’s got receipts: the win ran Tech’s nonconference home winning streak to 49 straight, 26-0 under McCasland. Nobody is picking Stonehill to win. But a 49-game streak built on winning doesn’t mean winning by 41.
No Toppin, no easy buckets
Here’s the problem with laying this many points. JT Toppin, the former Big 12 Player of the Year, is still rehabbing a torn ACL and targeting a late-December return. Without him, Tech has no go-to scorer on the block, and McCasland has said as much about his team’s early shooting woes: “Inside-out threes are higher-percentage shots than perimeter reverse threes.”
The numbers back him up. The Red Raiders are hitting just 42% from the field and 29% from deep through three games. They beat Jackson State by 34 and Bethune-Cookman by 18. Those are the two most similar opponents on the schedule, and neither game got to 40.
What Tech does do is defend. They’re forcing havoc at a ridiculous clip, 11.3 steals per game, and Bart Torvik’s ratings have them 17th in adjusted defense. That’s how Tech gets out and runs. It’s also why I’m not touching the total.
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Stonehill is bad. Is it 41-points bad?
Let’s be honest about the Skyhawks. They went 12-21 last season, 4-15 on the road, and they’ve lost their two road games this year by 20 apiece at Fordham and Columbia. At Columbia they led 36-34 at the break, then got outscored 41-19 after halftime. This is a rebuilt roster with 11 newcomers, nine of them transfers, and it shoots like it: 39.9% from the floor and 26.7% from three. Felipe Patino and Jack Medalie lead the way at 11 points apiece. Torvik ranks Stonehill 345th of 365 teams.
So, yes, Tech should win by a ton. My rough projection off Torvik’s adjusted efficiency numbers lands around Tech by 29, not 40-plus. Those ratings still lean heavily on preseason priors this early, but the gap is wide enough to matter. And 40-point games need the favorite to keep its foot on the gas for 40 minutes. McCasland will surely want fresh legs for New Orleans on Wednesday and the Players Era trip after that.
The case against me
The market is leaning hard the other way. This opened around 37.5 and climbed to 40.5 even though most of the tickets are on Stonehill, which tells you the bigger money likes Tech. A team traveling across the country on a scrambled schedule, playing its third straight road game, could fold early. If Tech’s press turns the first ten minutes into a layup line, the backdoor never opens. That’s why this is a lean, not a hammer.
Projected score: Texas Tech 85, Stonehill 53
The Pick: Stonehill +40.5 (-110)
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