Joe Jensen

Reverse line movement on Diamondbacks-Rockies has my attention. When the public zigs and the line zags, smart money usually knows something. Gallen’s 5.19 ERA at hitter-friendly Coors doesn’t add up with the strengthening Arizona line.

When Brewers and Twins meet, it’s usually a tight pitcher’s duel at Target Field. Tonight’s +136 runline suggests the oddsmakers haven’t caught on to Joe Ryan’s 2.41 home ERA against rookie Misiorowski’s control issues. The mismatch screams opportunity.

Sharp money is all over this Reds-Cardinals matchup for good reason. The total of 8.5 tells a story the public isn’t seeing yet with Singer (4.34 ERA) and Pallante (4.83 ERA) both struggling with command.

Everyone’s hammering the Phillies, but the Mets have covered 7 of their last 10 runline meetings between these clubs despite rotation woes. Wheeler’s 1.65 ERA vs. NYM tells a different story under the radar tonight.

Reverse line movement on Braves-Marlins has my attention. Despite Atlanta sweeping the Mets, the line barely moved from -140 to -143. When the public zigs on the hot team but the line barely zags, sharp money usually knows something under_radar.

Orioles come in hot, but Yankees’ pitching dominance at home changes everything. Fried’s 1.89 ERA against Baltimore’s road struggles (16-23) doesn’t add up with this total. The books might have missed something here.

Detroit Tigers’ road dominance meets Tampa Bay’s home struggles tonight. With Tigers getting +1.5 runs at -155, the books might be overlooking Flaherty’s strikeout potential against a Rays team fanning 8.47 times per game. Something doesn’t add up.

Rangers are 9-2 with deGrom but struggling on the runline lately. Pirates getting +1.5 with their home record of 19-19 looks awfully tempting tonight. The books are begging us to take Texas here, but something doesn’t add up with deGrom’s motivation factor.

Mariners come in struggling with Kirby’s 5.96 ERA, but Cubs’ 24-13 home record and Boyd’s 2.79 ERA changes everything. The 5.36 runs per game against Seattle’s road mediocrity screams value that doesn’t add up.

Guardians bring 4 straight wins to San Francisco, yet sit as +1.5 underdogs at Oracle Park. The disrespect feels intentional, especially with Webb’s 2.10 home ERA telling a different story than Giants’ four-game slide.